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Closing Comments

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Closing Comments

Weak economic data out of China had world stock markets and crude oil prices lower. China’s February performance was worse than expected, showing exports tumbling the most in six years.

USDA will release their monthly supply/demand report tomorrow at 11:00 CT with the trade expecting continued growth in inventories across the grain sector.

Corn

Corn finishes higher on technical buying ahead of tomorrow’s USDA supply/demand report.
USDA will release this month’s supply and demand report tomorrow at 11:00 CT. The trade is expecting incremental increases in supplies of corn, soy and wheat.
Generally slow fundamental news right now on the corn front with funds holding record short positions and feeders and exporters supporting price on breaks.
The weather prognostications are ramping up as spring approaches and meteorologists look for their favorite analogue year. The bulls are in the camp of “we’re following the 1983” pattern as well as correlations of below trend yields following wet Nov/Dec (this was a record wet year) as well as those citing corn yields below trend following warm winters (this will be in the top five warmest winter). The bears say soil moisture is adequate and temperature models are keeping the hot weather to the south for much of summer.
For now the short funds and coming spring uncertainty should provide market support.

Soybeans

Soybeans close higher for fifth straight session on short covering.
Soybeans were supported today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report and off short covering in the soybean meal market. Strength in soy meal has helped the crush margin recover as the slower pace has limited meal supplies.
Soy oil lost against meal on continued spreading and weakness from Malaysian palm oil.
The USDA reported a private sale of 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for 16/17 and another sale to unknown of 140,000 tonnes- 70,000 of it for 15/16.
Funds were reportedly buyers of 5,000 contracts today.

Wheat

Wheat closes higher across the board, led by Spring Wheat.
More short covering on dryness concerns in the southern Plains and wetness issues in the Delta lifted wheat ahead of the USDA report.
Kansas’ first weekly condition report of 2016 has their wheat rated at 56 percent good/excellent – down from 59 percent in a Feb 29 monthly report. Weekly ratings declined in Oklahoma but improved in Texas.
According to the newly appointed head of quarantine – Egypt will continue to apply a zero ergot policy on wheat imports until new legislation is issued..

Livestock

Cattle higher on expectations of more aggressive packer bids in the Southern Plains.
Talk of Texas packers bidding near last week and sooner in the week than expected helped support live cattle futures today. A week ago, packers in the Plains paid mostly $136 per cwt for cash cattle.
Packer margins are still negative, but less bad than they have been recently.
Hog futures were helped from the cash market remaining steady as growing packer demand help to absorb ample supplies.

Closing Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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