Our next front remains on track to arrive Saturday night and exit late morning Sunday. We expect decent rain overnight, and then action tapering off Sunday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .5” over roughly 60% of the state. The best chances will be over northern and northeast Indiana, but we will not try to get too cute and leave anyone completely out.
We are dry for, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and fieldwork conditions. The dry weather likely continues for Thursday and Friday as well, as temps climb. However, we can’t rule out a few hits and miss showers, primarily over northern Indiana, next Thursday morning and midday. Next weekend will be interesting. Models still want to bring in a front for Saturday but have been struggling to come up with a good moisture source for the system. Right now, we will keep the door open to some scattered shower and thunderstorm action, but we want to see better moisture flow up from the south before we get too excited. The map at right shows rain totals for the next 7 days.
For the extended period, we are going to go a little drier. The flow pattern is more west, which does not allow for good moisture support off the Gulf during the period. However, we still can see good heat-based pop-up action from time to time. The GFS model is trying to bring another tropical system up the western FL coast around days 13-15, but this model overplays these kinds of features. No other models are even giving hints of this kind of set up. It bears watching, but the American model does really ramp up moisture around mid-month as the remains move into the eastern corn belt. We think this has a very low chance of happening, and we are staying drier this morning.
Weeks 3 & 4:
In weeks 3 and 4, we see basically 1 good system per week. Week three has that front show up around the 19th and 20th, bringing rain totals of .25”-.75” and coverage of 90%. Week four’s event is a strong, powerful low for the 26th-27th that looks like it still needs a good moisture source to produce good rains. We think that we will end up getting that source eventually, and therefore we see precipitation of half to 1 inch for that week. Overall, that’s enough to keep precipitation near normal for the week 3 and week 4 period, while temps are likely a bit above normal.