Continued cold through the end of the week. A little more snow may work in for Wednesday and early Thursday. As a clipper passes by to the north, we will see some action lift up out of the southwest as well, and it may bring a bit of light snow to more of Indiana. However, amounts will be minor; mostly a coating to an inch or two, and coverage will be no more than about 50% of the state. The biggest impact may be over central Indiana.
This coming weekend, we continue to see a large scale system moving in. Models are playing around with the freezing line a bit, dipping it into northern Indiana a bit more by Sunday morning, but then moving it back north into lower MI by afternoon. We still are on the mostly rain side of the thought process right now, although rain will end as snow over northern and western locations. Liquid equivalent is impressive, with 2 day totals over an inch easily. The heaviest rains will be over southern Indiana, with Evansville potentially getting between 1 and 2 inches of weekend rain. We can expect some localized flooding.
Another arctic blast heads in for next week, and in general, we see below normal temps for the first full week of March. Temps will then try to moderate a bit toward mid month, as they moderate over most of the nation. We will likely see better precipitation chances around the 7th-8th, and then again for the 10th-12th. Generally speaking, there is not a whole lot of change in the forecast from 24 hours ago.
One more dry day in Argentina today before a significant fronts works through starting tomorrow. The front holds on over northern areas into early Friday. Models continue to keep the best precipitation developing over west and northern areas, keeping BA, Cordoba and LaPampa drier. Half inch rains or less are likely in the dry areas, while farther north we see 1-2 inch rains or better. A strong high moves in again behind the rains, putting temps back below normal. Highs of 75-85 are likely in the period…beautiful for developing corn.
Brazil full season corn areas will be mostly drier this week with action limited to hit and miss showers through Friday. The exception will be RGDS, where we will see that northern Argentina moisture come in full force late this week into the weekend. WE can see 2-3 inches of rain in Rio Grande do Sul in that period. Next week, action fills in a bit more over brazil, brining 10 day totals in brazil corn country to around half to 2.5”. But, we must stress that moisture in this pattern, outside of RGDS, is not frontal based, and there will be significant windows of opportunity for Safrina corn planting (after beans) in the central-north. A 6 day precipitation map (through this Friday) sits just below, in the Brazil soybean section.
The US Corn Belt sees a slightly better chance of snow from Wednesday into Thursday, although amounts still are small. The weekend storm complex headed in looks to be mostly rain from IL eastward, but we continue to see some models spit out a lot of snow from WI/MN back through IA and into northwest MO. With the moisture availability, if it is cold enough for snow, there will be some bigger amounts. But, the track and development of this system is still 5-6 days away from hitting…and plenty can change. We currently are just watching to see how it evolves. Cold air pushes in hard behind the system and will be in control most of next week as well.
We contineu to see hit and miss moisture this through the rest of the week. We like rain totals under an inch over about 70% of the brazil soy belt this week, allowing for better harvest activity and second crop corn planting. Next week, we see an increase in mositure again…which may lead to a few more delays. Still, many are talking about the rain as being helpful, especailly in Sau Paulo.
HRW areas look to get another batch of moisture this weekend. So far, the storm complex looks similar to what moved through this past weekend. Moisture totals are similar as well. The difference will be that this coming weekend system will be moving into already cold air, while the past weekend system came into a warmer air mass. This may set up for better snow potential right out of the gate.
Heavy rain is on the way to most SRW areas this weekend. Rain totals can be from 1-2 inches or more. Rain will also facilitate some snow melt as well. Rain may end as snow in northern SRW areas, but all rain will be seen farthern south, especially along the OH river and points south. Bitter cold air will ease some this weekend as the rain arrives, and then behind the rain it gets cold again.
No better than quarter inch rains over most of the FSU and Russian grain areas in the next 10 days. Kazakhstan could go through the period completely dry. Temperatures go much above normal this week and stay there next week. No change in the short term forecast for FSU and Russian wheat areas. The extended period shows fronts holding together a little better as they exit eastern Europe, but so far, we are not seeing any major increases in precipitation. Actually, it’s more just a few more smallish chances for rain in the extended period. Temps go above normal next week.
Temps moderate some as the week wears on, but look for well below normal temps through Friday. Warming temps this weekend will be interrupted by a cold push to start next week, but then warming accelerates next week. Moisture equivalents of the snows this weekend were not huge (mostly under half an inch), so even if we see rapid snow melt. Mud should be mostly limited to a couple of day’s worth of nuisance.
Other than bitter cold still this week, nothing stands out as being too troublesome for hog areas over the next 10 days. We could be seeing a lot of water around after this coming weekend, but it should not have too much impact on hog production.