Record cold is still possible in the days ahead, with a new shot of arctic air coming in tomorrow through Friday. That is the easy part of the forecast this morning.
Models have gone and muddled up the evolution of our weekend storm system. The past two runs have taken the system and tried to stretch it out over more days, and actually break it into 2 pieces. While I am not a big fan of this kind of solution, I do see some model agreement between at least two medium range models in this regard. This kind of solution also brings a bigger potential for snow into the Hoosier state as well, as the first wave would be coming into colder air for Saturday through Sunday. That should convert all moisture to snow, and we see moisture equivalents at anywhere from .2”-.5”.
The second part of the system, if the current model thinking were to be right, would come out across the eastern corn belt for Tuesday…actually late Monday through Tuesday. It currently has a fairly significant southern track, but also has a strong low associated with it, which would bring warmer air up in front. This brings the rain we have been talking about to this point…but it brings it a day and a half later. At this time, we are not going to make wholesale changes to our thought process based on a model run or two….but if this pattern persists through later today and into tomorrow morning, we will modify our forecast to allow for precipitation over a greater length. As of right now, we are still committed to significant moisture around over the weekend, from later Saturday through Sunday.
Next week we still see colder air arriving. This is one of the problems we have with a wetter or rain solution for next Tuesday…as colder air dives in behind the weekend system, we should see that cold air in play. Either way…that colder air should be in with below normal temps for the rest of the week. In fact, we think that we could see another arctic push to rival what we are seeing this week. Toward the end of the week next week another system lifts out of the central plains, and then around the 12th we can see another one. Temps will try and moderate toward mid month, but models seem reluctant to bring in anything other than a push back closer to normal for our region right into mid month.
A nice front works through Argentina from later today through tomorrow, and we may see the front holding on over northern areas into early Friday. Models have moved the precipitation a little farther east here in the last 12 hours, which will allow a bit more into BA province. At this time, we look for most of BA to get in on the good rains, with only eastern parts of that state missing out. Rains continue to look to fall in the half to 2 inch range, with coverage at 80% of argentine corn areas. A nice, cooler than normal high pressure dome still is on the way in the days following this front, and should bring dry, sunny weather to most corn areas. Another high follows for the end of next week. Getting there with no rain in-between means we may start to hear some desire to get a shower or two toward next weekend…but for now, we still have to look at this pattern as being nearly perfect.
Southern Brazil corn areas will pick up some decent moisture coming out of Argentina late this week into the weekend. This moisture will not make it much farther north than Parana. Moisture does fill in more next week over full season corn areas. Temps nearly normal.
Colder air may produce snow over a larger part of the US Corn Belt from late this week through early next week. However, along and south of the OH river, we will see heavier rains next week. The pattern remains colder than normal next week, and active precipitation patterns are likely through at least mid march. Right now, this weekend system is the main near term feature…and models are changing the dynamics of that system with every run. Moisture is coming…but the duration and type is flopping around a bit.
Plenty of dry pockets in the pattern over Brazil bean areas through this Saturday. There will be good windows to see harvest progress and second crop corn go in. Bean areas will see more active rains next week, but the pattern of seeing most action fire off in the afternoon with some warmth triggers will continue. There are not any significant fronts moving through bean areas until late in the 10 day period, toward the end of next week.
HRW areas still are on track to pick up another batch of moisture late this week and weekend. Moisture totals are all over the board, but in general, we can see from a quarter to three quarters of an inch of moisture. This system is coming into an already cold air mass…so there is a bigger chance of snow out of this system that what we saw this past weekend. Snow potential kicks off later tomorrow and then goes through the weekend.
We still moderat to heavy rain for sotuhern SRW areas, but the question is when it comes…as models are trying to delay it until early next week. Snows have better potential for this weekend over northern SRW areas. Mositure totals over SRW areas stil lranges from half to 1.25” or better over the 4 day period from Saturday through tusday. Temps get colder than normal behind the system, no matter when it actually clears the region.
Continued warmer than normal in FSU and Russian grain areas this week, with mostly dry weather through next week. Combined moisture totals will be under a quarter of an inch over 80% of the region.
Below normal temps to finish the week with another potential snow storm working through feedlot areas. Snow potential works from late Thursday through the weekend.
Other than bitter cold still this week, nothing stands out as being too troublesome for hog areas over the next 10 days. We could be seeing a lot of water and/or snow around after this coming weekend, but it should not have too much impact on hog production.