Snow is in the forecast for this weekend, but the next wave of energy to come through at midweek next week has become all sorts of a mess.
We should see decent sunshine today and tomorrow as we gear up for a system coming out of the central plains on Sunday. Temps will continue to be below normal today and tomorrow with yet another blast of arctic air coming in. Moisture starts to work in from the west and southwest on Saturday overnight, and then continues through Sunday. We like the entirety of this precipitation from US 50 northward to be snow. WE look for 3-6 inches from I-70 northward, with nearly 100% coverage. South of US 50, we can see rain or a rain snow mix, as the freezing line sets up in that general area. Liquid equivalent will be up to or over half an inch over the northern two thirds of the state, up to 3 tenths over the southern third.
Next week, models continue to show massive moisture working in over the state for Tuesday through Wednesday. However the low is looking stronger, and there is more of a push of warm air in with this low. I am not ready to hop full force on that bandwagon yet…but there is some model agreement between the American and European model that pushes the freezing line up into southern lower Michigan on Tuesday, before bringing it back south on Wednesday. At that rate, we would be looking at all rain Tuesday, changing to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before ending over northern Indiana, and all rain in the south. However, we think a push into the 50s all the way up into northern Indiana is a little over done, given the air masses in play here. Also, we like models to gravitate the low farther south in the runs ahead. So…we look for more snow in our solution in the days ahead. But…if current moisture totals are to be seen…we better pray its mostly rain…because we are seeing easily over an inch or water available for this event, which would be way, way, way too much snow if it worked that way. Even with the rains, we will have to increase our talk of flooding potential next week. So, stay tuned.
Following that system, we look colder than normal for the rest of the week next week. Arctic high pressure comes in, gives decent sun, but also keeps us cool. Models suggest warming in a 3-4 day time frame from the 10th-13th. The American model has now flipped and likes to keep the warmer air in play, while other models bring cold back toward the 14th-15th. There is plenty of time for that solution to work itself out, and we maintain that we like a cooler than normal pattern for at least the first half of March.
As high pressure pushes into southern Argentina today, we will see mostly dry weather try to emerge over crop areas. However, models are cutting short the drier period just a bit, and will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the region on the backside of the high starting later tonight and then continuing through the first half of next week. This will keep rain totals in the half to 1.5” range in over most of the northern half of Argentina corn areas and the western third. Dry areas will hold over BA and southeastern Cordoba.
Corn areas in Brazil see the mostly hit and miss rain pattern continue through midweek next week. Later next week, a front that comes out of a strong low that just sits off of eastern Argentina may swing moisture up into RGDS and southern Brazil. But, frontal interaction over Brazil still looks limited in the days ahead.
Snow for the US Corn Belt on Sunday will lead to some significant accumulations. A main body low coming out of the central plains at midweek next week will bring mostly rain, but we have a concern about temps not being as mild as what models are trying to advertise. That would lead to some chance of snow as well. Moisture available with that system will be well over an inch…so if all rain does occur over IL, IN, OH…flooding will quickly come to top of mind. The intermediate and extended forecasts are trying to build some moderating air…but not all models are on board yet.
It’s interesting that we continue to really see no major frontal boundary impact over Brazil soybean areas. We mentioned that in the Brazil corn section, but it’s an even bigger story for beans. This leads to a basic continuation of the current window of opportunity for bean harvest over the next few days. We likely will not see our next front impact Brazil soy bean areas until later next week. Now, we do see hit and miss moisture popping up each afternoon…so we will have to dodge the showers, but this is a more typical pattern for this time of year. The 7 day map shows almost all areas getting rains up to 1-2 inches, but the way they come should be manageable.
HRW areas get snow in the 3-7 inch range in the east, but more minor amounts farther west. NW Kansas can see 2-5 inches, but SW KS may only get a trace and mostly blowing snow. So…most of the region gets some moisture, but the ability to use that moisture may be tested. Warmer air tries to push in next week, and will be followed by another cold push. The extended period still keeps temps mostly below normal through mid month, in spite of a 3 day period with normal to above normal temps just ahead of mid month.
Snow potential is high for most SRW areas this weekend, espeically over norhtenr areas. Around the OH and MS river confluence we will see better rain chances and then to the south as well. Next week, rains can be heavy over SRW aresa at midweek. Moisture availaibility is high. But, don’t close the door on more snow out of that system yet either.
We see above normal temps continuing in FSU wheat areas right through next week. Moisture still looks limited, but is slightly better on the latest model runs, especially from midweek next week on through the end of the period. Emphasis on “slightly”