Models really have not changed much from 24 hours ago, bringing small systems through the state every couple of days. Temps will again be the key feature to watch. Much colder air comes in behind this next clipper tonight through tomorrow, but behind that, models are in disagreement over temps to finish the week. The American model suggests a bit of a moderating push in temps for Friday and Saturday ahead of our next minor system. The European does not. Right now, we like the European solution, allowing for some slight trend upward, but still bounded by normal on the top end, for an over all normal to below temperature pattern through the next two weeks. But…we will keep a close eye on the finish to the week, especially over the southern half of the state where there is no appreciable snowpack. Look for 20s and 30s today and tomorrow (ahead of the system), teens and 20s Thursday, and then 30s for the Friday into Saturday, with a potential skew higher
Our next clipper wave comes through from tonight through early Thursday AM. This system will hit in two waves. The wave tonight into tomorrow morning will be more north, hitting MI and extreme northern Indiana with light action…mostly under .2”, or about a coating to 2” of snow. Then the second part comes late tomorrow night through about 3 AM Thursday, and will hit most of the state. We see liquid equivalents of .1”-.25” so 1-3 inches of snow will be possible mostly state wide, although extreme southeast IN may see little to no precipitation.
The next precipitation outbreak is on the way for Sunday. This low looks stronger than 24 hours ago, and if it holds as shown on current models, it will bring .1”-.25” liquid potential to the stated down to Bloomington, and then mostly rain south of there. The freezing line looks to drape across the southern third of the state. We will have to watch precipitation type and origin closely…as there is potential for some of the precip we see now as snow to become freezing rain, if the moisture overruns a front to the north. There is some potential for that solution taking shape. Stay tuned.
Next week we have another little wave for Wednesday into Thursday that brings minor snows, mostly a coating to an inch or less. Then in the longer term we have a system for Valentines Day weekend that is still possible, and a strong low for the 17th that has the potential to bring significant snows. Liquid equivalents from that storm still are averaging over half an inch, and the freezing line has good potential to stay well south of most of the state.
No change in South American models, and that means we will talk again today about 2 significant fronts that sweep through South American crop areas between now and the 18th. We have been talking about the first front for over a week now, and its timing has not changed, entering Argentina’s Corn Belt on the 9th and sweeping north. We expect it to make it through Brazil crop areas by the 12th. Rains will be in the half to 1.5” range and coverage can be expected to be at 70%. The second front moves in to central Argentina around the 14th, and sweeps north through the 17th. This front has stronger thunderstorms at its core, and will be capable of producing rains outside of our expected range. Right now that range is for 1-2.5” rains, coverage 80%. But models continue to show a bulls eye of 3”+ rains in extreme northern Argentina, Paraguay and southern Matto Grosso do Sul…so we will need to watch those areas close.
In the mean time, Argentina corn areas look to finish this week mostly dry. Scattered showers were limited yesterday, and from today through Sunday we can expect nothing more than widely scattered showers with rains limited to 20% of the region or less. WE should see net drying most of this week, ahead of the rains next week.
The US Corn Belt continues to look for a split decision, with a trough in the east and a ridge in the western US. This will keep western Corn Belt locations and even northwest Corn Belt locations flirting with above normal temps off and on through the coming weeks. However, we believe we will see more cold days than warm at this time. Systems are set to come through every few days, and will keep the precipitation pattern active. There is really nothing in the Corn Belt that is problematic. Clippers are lined up for tomorrow, Sunday, next Wednesday, next Saturday and then a strong storm for the 17th.
Scattered moisture off and on the rest of this week up through next Monday. Rain totals will mostly be an inch or less, but can exceed an inch on a local scale in any stronger thunderstorms. However, those instances will be few. These showers and storms are not frontal based, but rather just typical afternoon heat based items that will have somewhat of a random feel. Still, we look for 50% coverage of action.
Next week kicks of a more active pattern with the two fronts mentioned above in the corn section. We like these rains to have excellent coverage over bean areas.
Warm today, rather cold tomorrow, then warm again to finish the week. The trough in the east/ridge in the west pattern will promote some swings of temps over the next week or so. This week, the cold comes with little precipitation south of the KS/NE line…a few hundredths is all. This will likely be blowing snow, with no real depth. That means HRW may be a bit more susceptible to the temp changes. However, the warmer finish to the week might be more trouble than the cold middle. Next weeks moisture looks limited, but a strong system around the 16th-17th holds promise of half inch rains.
Plenty of snow for Northern SRW areas, and we will add to that over the next few weeks a coating to a couple of inches at a time. Temps may try to push to normal or above normal levels in parts of SRW country later this week and early in the weekend, but likely have a low chance of staying there for more than a day or so. Southern SRW areas are still on track for good rains later this week, but dry out somewhat after this weekend. The weekend precipitation event has better coverage for SRW areas than 24 hours ago, including areas south of the OH River.
Temps will remain normal to slightly above normal in FSU areas through the rest of the week, but models remain insistent on much colder air diving in with a vengeance early next week. To strong arctic highs will arrive starting week and then again later in the period. Snow totals with the fronts that bring the cold air look uninspiring, but there should be at least .1”-.4” of precipitation combined out of the two fronts that can produce a little snow cover.
Biggest story for beef cattle feed yard areas will be big swings in temps from today (60s to near 70) to tomorrow (20s and low 30s) to Friday (back to 70s). The swing will feature wind and some blowing snow, but that is it. Overall, the period through mid month seems to favor above normal temps. By comparison, northern dairy areas need to be on the look out for fast moving little systems about every 3 days or so, with a stronger system passing just to the south of the region just past mid month. Cold air will keep temps normal to below for most of the two week period.
Transportation issues remain today, although no new snow in the past 24 hours will help with that. We will point out the main issues today in the same corridor we mentioned yesterday…I-80 to US-24. We look for a fresh 1-3 inches tomorrow into early Thursday, but it should not blow too badly. Longer term, there is potential for snow and freezing rain this Sunday, and then more snow potential next week. Temps remain below normal for most of this week, although if we were to make a run to near or above normal levels, we think it would have to be Friday into Saturday. But…don’t look for much, especially in areas that have the deepest snowpack.