Precipitation is back over the Hoosier state today. We have a minor clipper system that comes through in two parts today. The first is ongoing this morning and is mostly limited to extreme northern Indiana and into southern Lower Michigan. This sprang out of snow that developed yesterday over IA, MN, WI and northern IL. Precipitation totals will be limited to a few hundredths to a .12” liquid equivalent, and will be good for a coating to an inch or two over the northern tier counties. We doubt this snow makes it much farther south than US 30, and if it does, US 24 should hold it. Most of the state will see clouds all day, and the better coverage precipitation comes in late afternoon and overnight tonight. That part will be with a cool front, sweeping through the region quite quickly. We like total liquid potential at .08-.18”, or a coating to 2 inches. The best snows break out from Lafayette to Fort Wayne and north, although we will see flakes all the way to Bloomington. The freezing line sets up late afternoon in extreme southern Indiana, say a line from Rising Sun to Seymour to just north of Evansville. Along and south of that line we look for just light rain/sprinkles, or perhaps just nothing. A few areas in that Peru-Wabash area might pick up slightly better than 2 inches of snow…but not by much. This will really be a quick moving, cold air bringing event that just happens to produce a bit of snow too.
Immediately following the system we will see colder air in for tomorrow, but temps will start to modify on the backside of the Canadian high for Friday and Saturday as south winds kick in. We think that temps will work back to normal state wide. The American model is still the warmest solution out there and it calls for parts of southern Indiana to work toward the lower 40s for Saturday…but other models are colder. Those other models did modify their colder solutions a bit over the past 24 hours…so that is what is leading us to look for nearly normal temps for Friday and Saturday over the central and south. Up north, though, we think the models are not compensating quite enough for the significant snow on the ground, and its “refrigerating” effect on the atmosphere, so we like taking 2-4 degrees off the model projected highs, and keeping temps below normal through the weekend.
The next system to watch comes in on Sunday. Temps are a little warmer now on the model runs, suggesting the freezing line all the way up to the peru-wabash-bluffton area as the precipitation starts. This is concerning to me, in that the low will pass right near that track US 24 perhaps down to SR 26. South wind flow around the low may produce an “overrunning” scenario, where moisture laden warm air over-runs the colder air at the surface. Many times we see this in a warm front set up. In this case, with the freezing line in that area as well, we are concerned about precipitation developing as freezing rain, rather than snow. This will need to be closely monitored in the days ahead. IF the low moves farther south, and the freezing line with it, then concern for freezing rain will move south. If the low keeps the same track, and the freezing line goes farther south, we will be more apt to get just snow. Right now we will project rain in the south, snow far north, and a bit of freezing rain to snow potential in the above mentioned areas.
Next week we continue the pattern, with a clipper sweeping through at midweek. It does not look as impressive now, with models trying to make it fall apart off to our west, but we will reserve judgment for now. WE don’t like to change a forecast based on just one model run. We also see another system then for Valentines Day weekend, although it does not look to be exceptionally well organized.
The extended period shows a deepening trough over the country, expanding west to include more of the plains. Right now, models have backed off the stronger storm around the 17th, but we feel that if a deeper, colder trough is the right solution, then we will likely see a stronger low come over the top of the ridge to the west and move in sometime in or near that time period. So, we will keep that time period stormy/snowy in our thoughts right now.
We are bumping the next front in Argentina up about a day, getting action in for this Sunday, the 8th. This front will promote half to 1 inch totals easily across 80% of Argentina corn areas. Another front sneaks in around the 13th, but will start farther north. This still should bring half to 1 inch rains or better to 60% of Argentina corn areas. Temps look to be nearly normal to slightly above.
Southern Brazil corn areas see a nice front slowly working through late this week into the weekend. However, if there is an area to be missed, it will be Rio Grande do Sul. The action looks to start just north of there and work through Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo, in addition to eastern Matto Grosso do Sul. RGDS may be stuck just with some scattered showers. However, a second front for later next week looks to bring moisture back to the extreme south…so 10 day totals look to be nice…between 1 and 3 inches at least, coverage nearly 90%.
The US Corn Belt stays active in the east, drier and warmer in the west. Chance of freezing rain over the weekend in Indiana and OH. Rains next week favor the SW Corn Belt with models showing systems falling apart before they make it too far across the Mississippi river. Temps will stay mostly below normal in the east. A deepening and more impressive upper level trough digs in around mid month, and should drop temps sharply over the entire Corn Belt. The precipitation pattern remains unchanged in the east…a clipper or front every few days.
10 day rain totals via the European global model are impressive across Brazil soybean areas. If realized, this puts the heaviest rains on the driest areas to this point. It may not be soon enough for some beans in eastern parts of the soy belt…but anybody thinking about second crop corn would love these rains. We see nice, scattered afternoon thunderstorm potential almost every day over the region, but to get a good look at actual frontal moisture, you need to look at the 7 am maps…for example, we see a great front sweeping through most of brazil bean areas this Friday, spinning out of a strong low just off the coast of extreme southern brazil (Rio Grande do Sul). This kind of frontal action (this one hangs around 3 days, and there is another one around the 12th) works together with the scattered heat based action to produce excellent rain potential over the next two weeks.
Argentina soybean areas benefit from two fronts the next 12 days outlined mostly in the corn section. These will feature good coverage over 80% of bean areas.
Snow in northern HRW areas today with dramatically colder temps. We can see 2-5 inches of snow in north central KS, northeast KS and southeast NE. The rest of the region down to I-70 sees minor precip – less than an inch of snow in NW KS, NE CO and SW NE. the southern half of HRW country gets a few spits and sprinkles or more than likely nothing. However, we warm significantly behind this system starting tomorrow, and will be in the 70s over a large part of wheat country by Friday. Dry for the finish of the week, weekend and most of next week. Much colder air tries to dive in with a strengthening trough around mid month. But, until then we see temps above normal, and precipitation below normal.
No change in SRW areas, Snowpack holds over northern areas and we actually will be able to add to it. Rains are limited to areas near and south of the OH River. Temps mostly below normal.
FSU areas still look to get colder next week. Precipitation, though, looks to be mostly a north VS south event…with the southern region and western Kazakhstan picking up half to 1.5” liquid equivalents over the next 10 days but .3” or less farther north. Most of that precipitation will be snow. We have to categorize this pattern as normal to below normal on temps, and below normal on precipitation too, for the most