Zeroing in on the weekend system this morning. As it stands now, we will see some action through the day Sunday. Models are still not in the best agreement, but all say we see at least .2”-.5” of liquid equivalent out of the system. The heavier moisture will be south. The freezing line still lingers near the middle of the state, indicating rains south of 70, and snows north. The bigger precipitation may fall from KS across MO and IL, with the system turning more east as it gets to the Mississippi River.
Now…anytime you have a rain south/snow north set up, somewhere in there, there is going to be a doozy of a snow event. That may set up to be over central Indiana. Right now, since we don’t have another forecast before the event is over, we will take a stab at putting totals out. We like 3-6” over the northern half of the state. We would like to finesse the heavier snows toward the central part, like from US24 to I-70…but trying to place the exact location of the heavy snow band in a system like this is akin finding your wedding band on the silt bottom of El Dorado Lake in Kansas less than a year after being married (it can be done, but not often). In any case, farther south, we like mostly rain, with perhaps a switch over to snow before ending. Check back here over the weekend, if we see any serious reasons to change our snow totals upwards…we will update. If it looks more like we will get missed and get only rain…well, count that as a bonus and move on!
Following this system, colder air is in. Well below normal temps will be in over the state through all of next week. In addition, we see a clipper system for midweek that brings another chance of minor snows. However, clipper might not be the best term, as there will be ample moisture and a strong low to the south.
Clipper better describes the system in for the 7th with a few inches of snow over most of the state. Then another cold air shot.
The extended pattern has another system for the 12th, mostly snow.
Temps will be below normal for the entire period after today.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
A drier bias came into the models yesterday afternoon and continues this morning. We still have a good front around the 9th-10th, but generally speaking, argentine corn areas will be seeing only scattered rains in the meantime. That does not mean we have problems yet, as the scattered rains will likely be good for half inch totals, but coverage will be under 50% combined. The front for the 9th-10th will bring half to 1.5” rains, 70% coverage.
South and southeast Brazil are drier in short term, but still get a couple of fronts from early next week through the end of the extended period. WE like half to 2 inch rains combined, with 80% coverage. RGDS still looks to miss some of the best rains, but should get enough to keep from being too much of a headline.
Finally models are coming together on the weekend system. We see mostly rains south of I-70, snows north, with liquid potential up to .6” inches from KS right through the southern half of the US Corn Belt. If colder air comes sooner, we can see better snow amounts in IA and northern IL due to drier snow ratios (more snow per inch of liquid). Canadian air dominates behind this system for next week. A second low at midweek passes by over the Deep South, and a quick moving little trough tries to make it through the belt. This will trigger some light snows. Another clipper produces a few tenths of moisture around the 7th-8th.
The next few days we are ratcheting back the coverage of scattered showers. We see the coverage no bette rthan 30-40% of brazil bean areas from today through Monday. However, from Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period, we see rains scattered showers and thunderstorms bumpign back up and then strong fronts in for the extended period. This shiould produce rains of half to 1.5” with coverage at 80% of brazil bean areas.
As mentioned in the Argentina corn section…models are trendign a bit drier. Good rains hit about 60-70% of the corn belt this week, so a bit of dryness should not be a problem. We are watching temps, though, as they have been trending warmer than normal over central and western corn areas in times of drier days.
Moisture up to half an inch develops over KS HRW areas this weekend…with the only question being “rain or snow”. WE think mostly rain south of US 50, but snow near the I-70 corridor. Winds will howl. Father south, OK and TX should see .25”-1” rain totals, and some snow in the high plains and panhandle areas. Following that system, colder, but drier air settles in for a large part of the forecast period. Cold in the east warm in the west means there will be a temperature battle zone over western wheat areas, with temps in eastern CO and western KS possibly yo-yoing back and forth, a cold couple of days and then warmer. This might produce a wee bit of stress on wheat, but with the condition thus far, it should not be too bad. Good moisture in around the 12th-13th with a system that brings a plethora of rain to the west coast days prior, and then it makes it through the mountains with plenty of moisture still available. Wheat should like that.
SRW gets a blanket of snow to insulate from the cold in areas north of I-70…but may miss out on the blanket south. Still…good moisture still feeds the crop. Colder than normal temps through the first half of February, but nothing that screams winterkill.