More cold air in play today, and fresh snow last night added to the blanket in over the southern half of the state. But…even in the face of some record cold temps in the next 24 hours, a bigger story looms for this weekend.
Temps today will be well below normal, and a large part of the state will go below zero overnight tonight if you didn’t already get there last night. Clear sky will aid in the temperature drop off tonight.
Our next big precipitation maker is bigger and badder than ever for this weekend. Moisture totals are now pushing 1 inch from Saturday through Sunday over a large part of the Hoosier state. If that were all liquid…fine. But, there will be some snow in there, and some areas will be looking at heavy snow. We will wait another 24 hours before putting out our official snow totals, although we have some numbers swimming around in the back of our minds. We want one more day of model guidance as to track before we swing for the fence. That being said…we still like an axis of heaviest snow from Lafayette to Angola, which is just a bit farther north on the eastern side of the state than we had been. Models now have 3 runs featuring a northern track, and one with a more southerly track…so we like the potential for significant snows over the northern half of the state, and a band of heavy snow in there somewhere. Farther south, there will be mostly rains. In fact, through the daytime hours Saturday, we can even see rain all the way up into northern Indiana. That is what will ultimately make the snow forecast tricky…the line from all rain to heavy snow can be separated by a mere 20-30 miles (just look at the last big event for northern Indiana a week ago. 17 inches ne ar Warsaw, minimal snows Wabash, Kokomo, etc.). In any case, this will be a big deal.
Bitter cold air comes in behind this system for early next week again. Then we have another minor system at midweek, Tuesday night into Wednesday. That will be a northern clipper that can produce a quick coating to 1 inch of snow over 60% of the state. Cold air gets reinforced behind that clipper. A system late next week has held together, but right now models are keeping its track south of us, south of the OH River. We have a concern that we can see it ride farther north as we get closer to the event…but now will keep caution at a low level. Let’s get through this nearby system first before we worry about another one.
The extended period continues to show active weather for early march. We will see temps swing farther upward ahead of a system for the 3rd-4th…which will lend to more of a rain and snow combination. The system for farther out, around the 8th, is not coming together quite as nicely…but as long as cold air continues to come to play (and it looks like it does), there is potential for systems to continue to work in out of the plains through the first week of march. We do expect temperatures to moderate going into mid march to be normal or above normal…but also are expecting a cold April. Just food for thought.
High pressure is now in control over Argentina to finish the week and through early next week. . The high pressure dome continues to look cooler than normal for almost all of the corn growing regions of Argentina. The next front to watch hits next Wednesday into Thursday and looks much more impressive this time around. We had been looking for up to 1 inch of rain, but we will increase that to a range of 1-3. Honestly, if the European model plays out as the latest run shows, we could see up to 5 inches of rain in Cordoba and western Santa Fe. But…we think the model is a little overdone. Strong, cool high pressure comes in behind that front to finish next week.
10 day moisture maps continue to show moderate to excessive rain totals over Brazil corn areas. However, we are seeing some shifts to more localized heavy rain, leaving a few drier windows over the next two weeks. This kind of moisture pattern would be a little better for corn, and would allow for a slight downscaling of the total precipitation chances now through early March.
After record cold leaves by the end of the week, the US Corn Belt will be ready to deal with the next precipitation maker on the way for the weekend. Moisture totals are higher on the latest runs, with up to an inch or more being shown for Saturday/Sunday combined in Indiana, OH and IL, along with SE MO and western KY. A large part of the southern half of the system will be rain, but there is concern about heavy snow farther north. No matter the precipitation type, we see another arctic blast in to start next week, and a reinforcing shot of cold air later in the week. A strong system for late next week still is shown to stay south, but we have concern that it lifts farther north as we get closer to the event. An active precipitation pattern holds over the Corn Belt through the first week of March.
Moisture takes a more scattered and hit and miss pattern going through the end of the week and weekend. Modlels show the mostiure picking up in coverage and intensity next week. The map at right shows a snapsot of Sunday morning…notice the large part of brazil soy bean areas that see very little action. That means as we go thorugh the weekend and early next week, mosture is going to be less frontal based, and more heat based (afternoon showers and storms)..which should lend itself to better harvest potential, and planting potential. Later next week, we see an uptick in the scattered afternoon precipiation, but we do see a general lack of strong, lingering fronts until day 10, when we see a strong, slow moving low push into Rio Grande do Sul.
Slightly better chances of moisture in HRW areas this weekend. Liquid equivalent is up to about a quarter to a third of an inch, which may lead to 1-4 inches of snow in parts of KS, NE and eastern CO. While the moisture is not all that exciting, the potential for snow cover is something to pay attention to. Cold air holds over the region Next week. The extended period shows some moderation in temps, but nothing that runs away to the upside too far. Precipitation late next week likely stays in east TX and the lower Delta, although we are seeing some hints of snow trying to re-develop over KS/NE/CO Thursday the 26th. Action around the 4th-5th could bring up to half an inch
SRW areas push record cold again tonight, but then will moderate some. PRecipiation this weekend looks to push more rain than snow, in areas south of I-70, although we look for some snow as everything finishes. Farther north…there is potential for moderate to heavy snow, depending on location and track of the low. Southern SRW areas will see snow potential again toward the end fo next week as a system comes out of east TX and moves east. However, we have some concern that the system will track farther north…so its just something to watch for right now.
Still dry short term in FSU and Russian wheat areas. The dry hole is trying to fill in some on the 10 day European precipitation map…but we are not there yet. This is thanks to some late period fronts that are starting to look like they will hold together as they move through. Still, the best precipitation is in over the southern part of Russia’s Southern Region, and outside of that we still have 10 day rain totals at under a quarter of an inch.
OTHER AREAS OF NOTE:
About 24 hours until the show begins in Florida. Yes, it’s chilly this morning, but the coldest air will be in overnight tonight through tomorrow morning. The freezing and below temps still look to hold from the central peninsula northward…but time will tell.
Temps mostly below normal from this weekend through next week, but slightly warmer than normal in large feedlot areas in the central plains for the next 3 days. Very active weather brings more moisture to the region and potentially gusty winds/tough feeding weather at the turn of the month.
Potential still exists for a major winter storm this weekend in hog areas, and then a strong system around the 28th, the 3rd-4th and the 8th.