Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         Commodity Weather Group, based on an assessment of the analog years with similar sea surface temperatures in key locations, lowered its odds of a hot U.S. summer to 28% this week, down 4 points on the week.

·         The dollar continues to trade strong this morning, which has pressured wheat more than corn and soybeans. Money flow was out of the broader commodity sector, although that has improved through the morning.

·         Midwest cash hogs are mostly steady for the second day in a row.

·         Overall trade this morning has been quiet this morning ahead of the USDA quarterly stocks and planting intention reports. Key numbers in those reports against pre-report trade estimates were as follows:

Quarterly Stocks

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA March 1 Estimates

1.124

7.745

1.334

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.140

7.609

1.346

Highest Trade Estimate

1.200

7.800

1.404

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.083

7.459

1.273

USDA Previous Year

1.057

7.008

0.994

Water Street Solutions

1.163

7.459

1.304

 

USDA March 31 Acreage

2015-16

Corn

Soybeans

All Wheat

Winter Wheat

Spring Wheat

Durum

millions of acres

USDA March 1 Survey Results

89.199

84.635

55.367

40.751

12.969

1.647

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

88.731

85.919

55.796

40.727

13.334

1.759

Highest Trade Estimate

89.700

88.000

56.800

42.000

14.503

2.202

Lowest Trade Estimate

87.000

83.100

54.950

40.425

12.500

1.400

USDA Previous Year

90.597

83.701

56.822

42.399

13.025

1.398

Water Street Solutions

88.900

86.800

55.753

40.673

13.350

1.730

 

·         Corn futures are down 9 cents on the higher acreage and stocks.

·         Soybean futures are up 1 to 2 cents on smaller acreage and stocks.

·         Wheat futures are down 9 cents in Chicago and down 7 cents in KC and 8 cents in Minneapolis on the stronger dollar.

·         Live cattle futures are down a nickel in the lead contract, but 35 to 55 cents higher in the deferred contracts.

·         Feeder cattle futures are up 60 to 80 cents.

·         Lean hog futures are up $0.80 to $1.65 on follow-through buying from Friday’s USDA data.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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