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Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The grain and oilseed markets will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday, reopening at 7 p.m. CDT Monday evening.

·         USDA’s daily export reporting system today reported that Taiwan bought 3.7 million bushels of new-crop wheat and Thailand bought 109.4K metric tons of new-crop soymeal in the past 24 hours.

·         The dollar surged higher to new three-week highs this morning when the government reported that the core April consumer price index that excludes food and energy jumped 0.3%, beating analyst estimates of 0.1% and raising the odds of an interest rate hike.

·         Money began reversing out of the broader commodity sector when the dollar surged, pulling grain and oilseed prices back into negative territory.

·         Iowa State’s Dr. Elwynn Taylor has raised his U.S. corn yield estimate to 170 bushels per acre, now that it looks likely that we will be in an El Nino pattern for the duration of the growing season.

·         USDA’s cattle-on-feed report indicated that April placements fell short of expectations:

USDA Cattle-on-Feed

% of Previous Year

Trade

Trade

USDA

Estimate

Range

On-Feed

101

101.4

100.4-102.4

Placements

95

100.9

95.2-105.5

Marketings

92

92.5

91.7-94.1

 

·         USDA’s cold storage report reflected continued easing back of beef supplies in the freezer, but pork supplies have started to grow once again.

·         Corn futures are down 4 cents in broad-based commodity selling.

·         Soybean futures are down 7 cents as chart support gives way.

·         Wheat futures are down 10 cents on broad-based selling on the stronger dollar.

·         Live cattle futures are steady to 30 cents lower in the June to October contracts and up to 25 cents higher in the deferred. Boxed beef prices are significantly weaker in slow trade this morning.

·         Feeder cattle futures are steady to 50 cents higher.

·         Lean hog futures are mixed in quiet trade. Pork product prices are down more than $2 at midday.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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