Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         Money has generally been flowing into the broader commodity complex this morning on expectations that demand for commodities will increase as China increases its economic stimulus.

·         The increased flow of money supported continued short-covering and bargain-hunter buying in the grains.

·         Soybean basis remains strong amid good soymeal demand and slow farmer selling, supporting old-crop soybeans near-term. Additional support comes from concerns about planting delays in the southwestern Midwest.

·         Conditions in Southern Russia are heating up and drying out.

·         Excessive moisture the next two weeks in the Central Plains and much of the Midwest won’t be good for wheat, but it won’t be good for corn/soybeans either.

·         Corn futures are a penny higher after seeing increased sales on a rise to three-week highs.

·         Soybeans are 7 cents higher on firming soymeal basis.

·         Wheat is 9 cents higher in Chicago and KC and 7 cents higher in MN as the rally continues there on weather concerns.

·         Live cattle futures are roughly $1 higher on a surge in product prices this morning.

·         Feeder cattle are following the fat cattle market, trading $0.90 to $1.05 higher.

·         Lean hog futures are $0.30 to $1 lower after chart support gave way and amid soft cash prices. The product market is soft again this morning as well.

·         Trade expectations for tomorrow’s USDA crop report are as follows:

U.S. Ending Stocks

2015-16

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA May Report

Average Trade Estimate

0.798

1.779

0.487

Highest Trade Estimate

0.876

2.053

0.569

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.672

1.622

0.433

Previous USDA Estimate

0.793

1.746

0.500

Water Street Solutions

0.814

1.930

0.468

 

South American Production

Argentina

Brazil

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

MMT of Production

USDA Report

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

25.10

59.18

78.70

94.76

Highest Trade Estimate

29.80

61.90

81.10

95.50

Lowest Trade Estimate

23.70

57.75

76.50

93.70

Previous USDA Estimate

24.50

58.50

78.00

94.50

Water Street Solutions

26.00

59.00

79.25

94.70

 

U.S. Wheat Production

2014-15

All Winter

HRW

SRW

WW

All Wheat

billions of bushels

USDA May 12 Report

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.474

0.856

0.414

0.204

2.110

Highest Trade Estimate

1.515

0.885

0.426

0.225

2.191

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.445

0.820

0.398

0.198

2.050

Previous USDA Estimate

1.472

0.883

0.416

0.203

2.087

Water Street Solutions

1.501

0.873

0.422

0.206

2.116

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.

 

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