Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·       Export sales for the week ending September 18 totaled 32.9 million bushels of current-year corn and 10.6 million bushels of next year’s crop, 2.9 million bushels of grain sorghum, 94.3 million bushels of soybeans and 14.6 million bushels of wheat.

·         The weekly soybean sales total was expected as it was part of the routine annual purchase made by a Chinese delegation when they visit the United States and it does not materially change soybean fundamentals.

·         USDA’s daily export reporting system today also included another 4.4 million bushels of hard red winter wheat sold to Nigeria and 4.2 million bushels of soybeans sold to China.

·       Durable goods orders dropped a record 18.2% in August, although they were up a seasonally adjusted 0.7% after the transportation sector was removed.

·         The dollar is well off its new four-year highs set overnight, correcting lower off major chart resistance.

·         Soybeans tumbled to new contract lows this morning when overnight strength in the soyoil market evaporated amid high yield reports, dragging corn and wheat lower.

·         Losses in the grain and oilseed sector have been amplified by a flight to safety in the broader markets, with the VIX, or fear index, up nearly 20% at times today.

·       December corn is down 3 and just above contract lows.

·       November soybeans are down 11 cents after falling to a new contract low of $9.225 this morning.

·      Chicago wheat is down 10 after falling to a new contract low this morning, while KC is down 3 cents and MN is down 5 cents.

·       October live cattle are 60 to 65 cents higher, but deferred contracts are largely $0.90 to $1.30 higher on talk that the cash market may be bottoming.

·       Feeder cattle futures are steady to firm just below record highs while waiting for more direction.

·         Lean hog futures are down $1.15 to $2.00 as chart support gives way ahead of tomorrow’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report. Trade expectations for the report are as follows:

September 26 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

USDA

Trade Est.

Range

 

percent of previous year

All hogs September 1

96.7

95.6-97.5

Kept for Breeding

101.7

99.8-104.7

Kept for Market

96.2

94.9-97.0

Pig Crop

       

June to August

97.8

96.9-99.0

Weight Groups

       

Under 50 lbs.

97.6

96.1-99.5

50 to 119 lbs.

96.6

94.9-97.7

120 to 179 lbs.

95.0

94.0-96.2

Over 180 lbs.

94.0

91.8-96.6

Farrowings

       

June to August

100.4

100.0-100.7

Farrowing Intentions

       

September to November

103.2

102.0-104.3

December to February

101.7

98.2-103.6

Pigs per Litter

       

June to August

97.4

96.2-98.9

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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