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Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         Three terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and North Africa have had little impact on the markets.

·         Greek uncertainty hangs over the markets, along with today’s expiration of July options, the end of the fiscal quarter on Tuesday, first notice day for delivery against July contracts on Tuesday, USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report this afternoon, USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report on Tuesday and USDA’s planted acreage report on Tuesday. Of course, all of that takes place just ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend as pollination begins in the corn crop.

·         European traders started today’s rally due to heat and dryness in Europe combined with reports they were seeing of excessive rains creating flooding in the U.S. Midwest.

·         Early-trade buying reached major chart objectives for corn and soybeans, while also triggering selling points held by many farmers across the Midwest.

·         Cash corn and soybean movement is said to be heavy, but the market has absorbed it well to this point, although basis is weakening.

·         July corn rallied to the $3.90 strike price but is now up 6 and closer to the $3.80 strike.

·         July soybeans popped above the attractive $10.20 strike price to a high of $10.245, but is now trading up 9 cents near $10.09, with $10 another attractive strike price, although less so.

·         Wheat futures at five-month highs in Chicago, up 29 cents and just a nickel off their high, while KC is up 23 and at a 3-cent discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is up 18 cents.

·         June live cattle are up 70 cents to $149.20 after cash cattle traded mostly at $148 in Kansas, with a some at $147.00 in Nebraska, while the deferred contracts are up 5 to 10 cents after Thursday’s lows held on the charts.

·         Feeder cattle are $1.10 lower in the August on the higher corn costs, although firmer in the deferred months.

·         Lean hog futures are 30 to 65 cents higher in consolidation ahead of this afternoon’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report. Product prices are soft on slow movement this morning. Cash hogs are mostly steady to up to $1 lower.

June 26 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

USDA

Trade Est.

Range

percent of previous year

All hogs June 1

108.0

107.4 – 109.0

Kept for Breeding

102.0

101.3 – 102.6

Kept for Market

108.9

107.9 – 110.8

Pig Crop

March to May

107.7

106.1 – 109.0

Weight Groups

Under 50 lbs.

108.0

106.0 – 111.5

50 to 119 lbs.

108.6

106.1 – 110.2

120 to 179 lbs.

109.6

108.2 – 111.6

Over 180 lbs.

110.0

107.8 – 111.8

Farrowings

March to May

102.1

102.0 – 102.5

Farrowing Intentions

June to August

99.3

97.0 – 101.2

September to November

100.4

97.4 – 102.2

Pigs per Litter

March to May

106.0

105.0 – 108.0

·        

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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