Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The dollar surged through chart resistance to new four-year highs overnight, but pulled back from its highs this morning after the latest consumer confidence index came in well below Wall Street expectations.

·         The trade continues to focus on expectations that USDA will significantly boost its corn and soybean yield estimates on October 10, based on harvest results thus far.

·         USDA raised the size of last year’s soybean crop by 69.2 million bushels to make its balance sheet work.

·         USDA released its quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports at 11 a.m. CDT. Results of those reports are as follows:

USDA September 30

2014-15

Quarterly Stocks

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA September 1 Estimates

1.914

1.236

0.092

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.880

1.185

0.126

Highest Trade Estimate

1.980

1.350

0.150

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.707

1.020

0.100

USDA September 1 2013

1.870

0.821

0.141

Water Street Solutions

1.949

1.175

0.140

 

U.S. Wheat Production

2014-15

All Wheat

All Winter

HRW

SRW

WW

HRS

Durum

 

billions of bushels

 

 

 

 

 

USDA September 30 Report

2.035

1.378

.738

.455

.184

.601

0.057

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

2.037

1.394

0.728

0.465

0.201

0.580

0.062

Highest Trade Estimate

2.075

1.413

0.758

0.472

0.213

0.608

0.070

Lowest Trade Estimate

2.004

1.376

0.707

0.437

0.193

0.558

0.056

Previous USDA Estimate

2.030

1.397

0.729

0.466

0.202

0.572

0.061

Water Street Solutions

2.019

1.376

0.713

0.461

0.202

0.581

0.062

 

·         Corn futures are down 4 cents on the USDA data.

·         Soybeans erased their losses, but have added them back again on big crop expectations; currently down 9 cents.

·         Wheat is down 8 to 9 cents at the three exchanges.

·         Live cattle are down 30 to 65 cents on profit taking after testing yesterday’s record highs, but finding limited buying there. Boxed beef movement is good this morning, with Choice cuts up another $1.49.

·         Feeder cattle are 55 to 80 cents higher on a surge in the cash index.

·         Lean hog futures are $0.35 to $1.00 higher on follow-thru buying from yesterday’s reversal and on strength in the product market.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528

 

 

Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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