Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         Crude oil made new 5-1/2 year lows this morning as global demand softens while supply increases.

·         Money flow has generally been out of both the equity and commodity markets today on rising global economic concerns.

·         Export shipments for the week ending January 8 totaled 19.7 million bushels of corn (weak), 4.0 million bushels of grain sorghum (good), 67.6 million bushels of soybeans (strong) and 8.8 million bushels of wheat (poor).

·         USDA’s report failed to match bullish expectations the trade had built into prices.

USDA January 12

2014-15

Quarterly Stocks

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA December 1 Estimates

1.525

11.203

2.524

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.499

11.123

2.590

Highest Trade Estimate

1.585

11.325

2.742

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.400

10.820

2.400

USDA December 1 2013

1.475

10.453

2.154

Water Street Solutions

1.497

11.219

2.622

 

U.S. Yields & Production

2014-15

2014-15

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

Yield in bushels per acre

Production in billions of bushels

USDA January 12

171

47.8

14.216

3.969

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

173.300

47.600

14.349

3.956

Highest Trade Estimate

174.300

48.200

14.554

4.020

Lowest Trade Estimate

171.300

46.800

14.171

3.844

Previous USDA Estimate

173.400

47.500

14.407

3.958

Water Street Solutions

174.100

48.000

14.415

3.994

 

U.S. Ending Stocks

2014-15

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA January Report

0.687

1.877

0.410

Average Trade Estimate

0.666

1.927

0.393

Highest Trade Estimate

0.699

2.081

0.452

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.636

1.710

0.355

Previous USDA Estimate

0.654

1.998

0.410

Water Street Solutions

0.668

2.081

0.394

 

Winter Wheat Seedings

2015-16

Total Winter

Hard Red

Soft Red

White

millions of acres

USDA January 12

40.452

29.500

7.500

3.480

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

42.564

31.023

8.039

3.502

Highest Trade Estimate

44.000

32.115

8.739

3.823

Lowest Trade Estimate

41.000

29.800

7.432

3.200

USDA 2014 Seedings

42.399

30.471

8.498

3.430

Water Street Solutions

43.068

32.115

7.432

3.521

 

 

 

 

 

·         Corn futures are down 1 cent

·         Soybean futures are down 25 cents

·         Wheat futures are down 5; KC dn 7

·         Live cattle are $0.95 to $2.15

·         Feeder cattle are $2.50 to $3 higher.

·         Lean hogs are $2 lower.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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