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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         Grains stronger in the overnight across the board. Corn +3-4, Soybeans +4-5, Wheat +7-8.

·         Dollar, Energies, Gold and Silver stronger to start the week as well.

·         China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center released a report showing they expect soybean imports to rise by 5.5% to 77 million MT in the 15/16 market year. This is comparable to the latest USDA estimate.

·         Markets are expecting this afternoon’s USDA report to show Corn planting estimated to be 85-90% complete vs. 75% last week and 76% average for the date.

·         Markets are expecting this afternoon’s USDA report to show Soybean planting estimated to be 50-55% complete vs. 31% last week and 38% average for the date.

·         Frost risk remains on the table for northern areas.

·         Today’s rains focused on ND, SD and the delta with extended outlook to be cool and wet.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/Delta, weekend showers were widespread with the exception of NC Midwest where planting was still possible especially in E. IA, N. IL, and WI. Drier conditions this week will allow a slow recovery of planting progress with greatest de-lays focused in the SW Midwest where rains could return as early as mid-week. That will limit corn/soy seeding for NE/KS/ MO. Rains return later next weekend and continue into the 11-15 day mainly stretching out soybean planting. A strong cold push behind the weekend system in the NW Midwest is leading to light snow and near freezing temps this morning in ND. Lows in the mid-to-upper 20s in all but southeast ND and north central SD potentially damaging emerging corn as nearly 1/2 of the acreage is vulnerable. Delta showers will taper off now but the heavy weekend rains will make a return to fields slow. AR could see showers return as early as mid-week further slowing recovery. That area will be most prone to soft wheat quality decline and localized flooding. Rains do diminish in the 6 to 10 day but increase in the 11 to 15 day. The 16 to 30 day rain pattern continues to threaten the N. Delta, while showers in the Midwest corn/soy are more seasonable and aid early growth.

 

In the Plains, weekend rains were widespread with only E. CO and far W. KS seeing minimal showers. Heaviest rains were in SC and E. KS. Widespread rains mid to late week continue to add to quality declines and keep localized flooding an ongoing concern, especially in the TX and OK area. The southwest Plains should finally see a drier trend begin to develop next week but southeast areas remain unfavorably wet. U.S. spring wheat areas have abundant moisture after the weekend, but Canada remains dry. This is allowing rapid seeding completion but may stress early growth especially n S. Alberta.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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