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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         Grains and oilseeds under pressure overnight as the short-covering wheat rally takes a pause and the dollar rallies.

·         Crude weaker overnight while natural gas continues its march higher.

·         US Equity markets post another new high in the overnight trade.

·         USDA report shows Corn planting 85% complete vs. 75% last week and 76% average for the date.

·         USDA report shows Soybean planting 45% complete vs. 31% last week and 38% average for the date.

·         Strikes in Argentina continued at some crushers and ports with talk that strikes are starting to spread to other regions of the country.

·         Temperatures in the north and west didn’t reach as low as predicted, alleviating some of the fear of crop damage.

·         World Trade Organization ruled against US in meat labeling and will require US to adhere to worldwide trade laws or risk retaliation from countries like Canada and Mexico.

·         Monday in Chicago funds bought 4,000 corn, 6,000 wheat and were even on soybeans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/Delta, rains in LA/MS delayed soy/cotton seeding with just a few lingering showers in the SE Midwest yester-day. Showers in the Midwest are limited to the southwest third of the belt this week allowing much of the remaining corn seeding to be completed and keep soybean seeding at or slightly ahead of normal. Rains should expand across the region next Sunday/Monday slowing progress once again. An active rain pattern in 11-15 day could lead to delayed late soybean planting and will need to be watched for excessive wetness potential in MO/S. IL. Lows this morning were mainly upper 20s to lower 30s in ND with only minor damage as corn emergence stalled at less than 15%. Warmer conditions next week are essential to improve germination and avoid poor stands. Delta showers will be limited over the next week allowing a slow resumption of soy/cotton seeding and helping to keep the pace near normal at least. Soft red winter wheat quality could suffer from the wetness later next week but do get a break in the 11-15 day. Wetness concerns remain in the 16 to 30 day pat-tern for the Delta and southwest Midwest which may begin to delay early wheat harvest.

 

In the Plains, rains yesterday were limited to the southern fringes of the belt while rains spread across CO overnight. Wide-spread rains over the next 2 days and again early in the weekend keep localized flooding an ongoing concern, most notably in TX and OK. The southwest Plains see less rains in the 6-15 day period that is beneficial but wetter trends in the 16 -30 day keep concerns for quality declines and early harvest delays. U.S. spring wheat areas will see sufficient showers to maintain good early growth. In Canada, driest areas are in Alberta where showers in 11-15 day could hold off stress.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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