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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         Crude oil prices pulled back overnight after the World Bank downgraded its global economic outlook.

·         Egypt released a snap tender to buy wheat for mid-July delivery late Wednesday, with results expected this morning.

·         An active Midwest rain pattern is expected the next two weeks, with showers focused on central and southwestern areas over the next five days.

·         Heavier rains are expected in the Southern Plains over the next week, threatening quality while delaying the wheat harvest.

·         Near-term showers provide relief for dry areas of Western Canada next week, before a drier outlook into July.

·         Dry areas of Europe should benefit from rain over the next five days, while northern Germany is short-changed.

·         USDA will release weekly export sales data at 7:30 a.m. CDT this morning.

·         Corn and soybean prices consolidated overnight, while wheat extended Wednesday’s losses amid rising global supplies.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/South, scattered thundershowers favored central/southeast NE, northeast KS, central/far southwest IA, northwest IL, far northwest OH, and patchy sections of central LA/central MS/southern AL/southern GA in the past day. 90s were common throughout the southwest Midwest/OH Valley, but mid to upper 90s were mainly in southern NE/far southwest IA/KS.

Heat moderates slightly more today and eases tomorrow, with the next chance for low to mid 90s in the far southern Midwest late next week. An active storm track will continue in the next 30 days for the Midwest, with pockets of excess moisture in the western Midwest. The return of wet weather will again largely stall late soy seeding through early next week in KS/MO, but the rains will be welcome to support good corn/soy growth in most areas. Showers remain more disorganized in the Delta and should only pose minor delays to soft wheat harvest, while mid-90s to low 100s will stress GA/SC corn next week.

In the Plains/Canada, thundershowers favored central/eastern NE, west-central/northeast KS, western SD, northern Alberta, and far southern Saskatchewan in the past day. Models continue to trend heavier with rains over the next week in the S. Plains, threatening a return of flooding concerns/lodging threats to wheat in West TX, OK, and southern KS. Drier weather does then return though mid to late next week.

An active shower pattern in the 6 to 15 day will aid N. Plains spring wheat, and showers over the next week will also offer some minor relief to driest areas in western Canada. However, the outlook still reverts warmer/drier for late June/early July in Canada and will threaten losses.

Europe Wheat Benefits From Expanding Rains Next 5 Days; N. Germany Most Likely Short-Changed. Rains benefit southwest France, northern Italy, and southeast Europe wheat/corn yesterday. Poland rain potential has improved, while northern Germany (40% of wheat) and far northern France (15% of wheat) are most likely to be missed.

Ukraine Rain Relief Likely 6-10 Day; Heat Concerns Remain for Russian Volga and S. Russia. Most models support showers crossing Ukraine next week, aiding wheat/corn. In Russia, Volga and northern South Russia are most likely to be missed by rains, and heat potential has increased for the 6 to 10 day (90s to low 100s).

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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