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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +10, wheat +1-2, crude oil -.44, dollar -.32, gold +1.0 and the Dow -140.
  • Soybeans leading strength overnight on continued fund buying off the US dollar index trading at its lowest level since January of 2015 and a report out of Argentina estimating crop losses of 15% of production or 9 mln mt.
  • Planting progress had corn in at 45% complete vs 30% last week and 35% for the average on this date. Soybeans are 8% planted and Spring wheat at 54%. US winter wheat G/E conditions rose to 61%.
  • Brazilian analyst Cleres lowered their estimate for Brazil second crop corn to 52.8 mln mt, down from their previous estimate of 58.8 mln due to the prolonged hot/dry stress. Brazil’s second crop corn represents about 65% of their annual corn production.
  • Yesterday funds bought 7,000 soybeans, sold 2,000 corn and 1,000 wheat.

 

US Dollar Index daily continuation chart:

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In the U.S., showers scattered across the South, favoring parts of western LA, northwest MS, southeast AR, central/ southwest TN, southern KY, central/northeast AL, eastern GA, central SC, and NC. A few showers linger in the Southeast today, but the only other interruptions to seeding will be from light scattered showers in the eastern Midwest tonight/tomorrow and this weekend. Otherwise, seeding progress accelerates by later this week in the Midwest/Delta, allowing for some additional notable advances in most areas. Seeding interruptions return after the weekend, with intermittent rain chances through the 6 to 15 day. The pattern does not appear excessively wet, but SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, AR, and LA are at risk for the most frequent rainfall. Warming temperatures will aid newly seeded crops. With the exception of the southwest 1/4 of the Plains hard red winter wheat, additional showers occur early in the 6 to 10 day and again in the 11 to 15 day as well to maintain favorable yield potential. Soil moisture is improving with current showers in the Southeast corn/wheat, but rain chances are more limited for dry wheat areas in WA/OR later this week. Late spring wheat seeding will slow at times in the 6 to 15 day for MT/SD/MN, but warm weather will aid progress in much of the N. Plains/Canadian Prairies.

 

In South America, Argentina was dry yesterday, and dry weather will continue to aid harvest this week. Showers arrive in the south on Friday and expand in the west this week-end, slowing harvest in Buenos Aires and Cordoba. Showers become isolated next week, allowing harvest to pick up and keeping damage minimal from these showers. Brazil was dry yesterday and will remain so until Friday, aiding late soy harvest in the south. Rains cover the southwest 1/3 of the corn belt next weekend and expand early next week. The northeast 1/3 will continue to see moisture stress in the next 10 days.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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