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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1/2, soybeans +4-5, wheat +1, crude oil +.10, dollar -.27, gold +14.0 and the Dow -40.
  • Markets generally higher overnight with soybean/soymeal continuing to lead strength. Quiet news overnight other than the continued digesting of the USDA report. Trade focus will return to how the balance of the US crop gets planted, South American weather and summer US weather trends.
  • Soybean/Corn ratio at the highest level of the new crop contract continues to provide switching opportunities for area with behind average corn planting progress. Official planted acres will be reported by the USDA June 30.
  • CME raised soybean hedge margins yesterday afternoon to $2,300, up from $2,000. Soy meal, soy oil and soybeans will trade on expanded limits today.
  • Yesterday funds bought 29,000 soybeans, 18,000 corn and 3,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In the U.S., rains were less than expected in the eastern Midwest in the past day. Showers favored far southeast Alberta, central/southern Saskatchewan, central MT, southeast SD, central/eastern NE, northern KS, central TX, central/northwest KY, southwest MO, northeast/far southern IL, northeast/far southern IN, south-central OH, and southeast WI. Mostly light showers scatter across the western Midwest today/Friday and the eastern belt tomorrow/Saturday and cause patchy seeding

delays in much of the belt. Rains then favor the far southwest Midwest in the 6 to 10 day, with cool but dry conditions aiding seeding elsewhere. Light frost this weekend should remain limited to areas near the Canadian border. The Delta will see scattered showers in the next two days in the north, with broad rainfall in the 6 to 10 day to slow seeding. Rains do return in the 11 to 15 day but shifted northward, with warmer/drier conditions aiding fieldwork in much of the southern Midwest/Delta.

Poor 11 to 15 day model skill lately does limit confidence. Extensive rain early next week in the Plains winter wheat areas will maintain favorable yield potential. Notable rains are aiding moisture in much of the Canadian Prairies spring wheat/canola and could return to the south in the 11 to 15 day, but dry spots will persist in the northwest (up to 30% of the belt).

 

In South America, Argentina showers (.25 to .75”) were isolated to mainly western/northern fringes of the belt yesterday. A few light showers continue to favor the northwest 1/4 of the belt today. Light showers favor the southern 1/3 of the belt this weekend. Showers remain limited in the 6 to 15 day, aiding corn/soy harvest. Brazil rains (.50 to 2.5”) fell in the central 1/3 of the corn belt yesterday and linger in the next two days. Shower expand across the corn belt early next week and push light rains into the drier northeast 1/3 of the belt, but moisture stress is likely to linger in 20% of the belt.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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