Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans -8, wheat -1-2, crude oil even, dollar +.15, gold -1.0 and the Dow +26.
  • Lower grain trade overnight but off session lows this morning. Higher US dollar and better short-term weather weighing on price. Quiet news overnight.
  • Some farmer sales in old and new corn picked up yesterday. Brazil farmer was a seller of soybeans.
  • July board crush margin trading at its highest level overnight since last August on the weaker soybean price relative to meal and oil.
  • Mass strikes on France over proposed labor law changes continued in Paris for the sixth day in a row as workers are threatened by the possibility that near lifetime guaranteed employment ruled would be weakened to help employers be more willing to hire new employees. Disruptions have been felt most in the French transportation sector.
  • USDA will issue its monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. On-feed are expected to be 100% of a year ago.
  • Yesterday funds bought 10,000 soybeans, 9,000 corn and 4,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In the U.S., rains scattered across the southern Midwest, Southeast, and far southern Plains in the past day, favoring southern parts of the TX Panhandle, central TX, southern AL, eastern/far southern GA, southern SC, and eastern NC. Light frost this morning was spotty in central/northern WI and of limited concern. Showers are exiting the far eastern corn belt currently, and a system later this week has shifted farther to the south. This will allow most of the eastern corn belt to remain dry until

the latter 1/2 of the 6 to 10 day, with intermittent showers during the balance of the 15-day period resulting in brief interruptions. However, the seeding pace should improve, particularly as warmer weather develops early next week. Showers will still move through the Delta/Southeast on Friday/Saturday, but drier weather will then also aid late fieldwork in these areas until the 11 to 15 day. The wettest 6 to 15 day conditions are expected from the Plains into the southwest Midwest, with extensive rain also occurring in the far S. Plains in the next two days. While the moisture is aiding winter wheat yields during late growth, the active pattern will also hinder maturing wheat in TX/OK. Notable rains remain likely to benefit drought areas in Alberta from Thursday to Saturday, easing near-term concerns. Dry weather will allow seeding in the N. Plains to wrap up this week, while the Canadian Prairies will see occasional delays during the next two weeks.

 

In South America, Argentina was dry yesterday. Rains remain very light and limited in the next two

weeks, maintaining a favorable corn/soy harvest pace. Brazil had just sprinkles in the central corn/

sugar areas yesterday. Light showers linger in central areas this week, with rains across all but

the northern 1/3 of corn this weekend. Spotty corn filling stress persists in the north, but dryness will

soon aid early harvest. Sugarcane harvest is slow this week but improves with dryness next week.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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