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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1-3, soybeans +9-10, wheat +4-10, crude oil +.50, dollar -.08, gold +5.0 and the Dow +34.
  • Grains higher this morning from higher Chinese futures, continued strength in the board crush margin and the weaker US dollar.
  • Reuters is reporting that China’s investigation into US ‘dumping’ of DDGs into China is focusing on three US companies; Poet, Big River Resources and Marquis Energy.
  • Yesterday’s EIA report showed a draw in energy inventories which was in line with analyst expectations. Ethanol data was positive, featuring steady production and lower stocks.
  • Brazilian officials noted in a Reuters interview said the government has plans to remove restrictions barring foreign ownership of agricultural land.
  • Wednesday funds bought 14,000 soybeans, 12,000 corn and 1,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, rains favored southeast Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, eastern ND, northwest/southern MN, central WI, northeast/far southern IL, southwest MI, southwest KY, northern/western TN, east-central AR, far northern MS, northeast KS, northern/central IA, and near the NE/SD border in the past day. An active storm track continues through late next week in the western Midwest, limiting late fieldwork. Rains ease from the end of the 6 to 10 day into the 11 to 15 day, but showers will still occur at times to delay late soy seeding. However, eastern areas avoid much of the rain in the next ten days, with the arrival of 11 to 15 day rains beneficial to support early corn/soy growth. Temperatures remain favorably warm through much of next week but cool in the 11 to 15 day. The active pattern remains likely to keep moisture well-supplied heading into the summer. Plains hard red winter wheat areas will be wettest in the central/southeast parts of the belt, but the active storm track and cooler than normal temperatures for the belt as a whole may remain a threat to protein content in the belt. Showers will aid the Canadian Prairies in the 1 to 5 day period, but warmer/drier trends then begin to return in June to the region. Recent rains have aided early crop prospects significantly, but the western belt will still need to be watched closely for concerns

later in the season.

 

In South America, Argentina dryness takes a brief break next week, while showers aid wheat. A

return to dryness in the 11 to 15 day should keep corn/soy harvest interruptions minor. Brazil corn/

sugar areas were dry yesterday. Rains this weekend and the middle of next week aid late corn

filling. The showers next week could slow early harvest but are short-lived. Sugarcane harvest

delays are more extensive next week, but yield loss potential is minor due to less heavy rain.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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