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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1/2, soybeans even, wheat -1-3, crude oil -.37, dollar +.14, gold even and the Dow +16.
  • Mixed to lower trade overnight on light volume the last day ahead of the three day weekend.
  • Weekly USDA corn export sales came in on the high end of trade estimates yesterday at 1.381 mln mt. This takes year-to-date sales to 41.8 mln mt vs 42.9 on this date last year.
  • Old crop export sales came in at 456,900 mt, the upper end of estimates. Year-to-date sales now stand at 47.3 mln mt vs 49.9 mln on this date last year.
  • Buenos Aires Exchange estimates Argentine soybean harvest at 72.1% complete vs 90.3% last year.
  • CFTC fund position data will be out this afternoon.
  • Yesterday funds bought 12,000 corn, 7,000 wheat and sold 6,000 soybeans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, rains favored parts of eastern CO, southeast NE, southwest IA, western/southeast MO, central/eastern KS, central TX, northeast AR, northern/western TN, southern/western KY, and far southern IL in the past day. Rains are quite active in the next 5 days in the western Midwest, with the exception of a brief break Sunday/early Monday. While showers return in the 11 to 15 day (particularly in the southwest), the 6 to 10 day did shift drier today to allow for some late soy seeding in the west, with the break also limiting wetness concerns after some locally heavy rain in the far west. The 6 to 10 day models are markedly different though (drier Euro favored), keeping confidence low. Showers will be intermittent and limited in the eastern Midwest and much of the Delta in the next two weeks to aid fieldwork, as the best rains focus west of the MS River. A tropical disturbance will bring some wet weather to the Carolinas this weekend as well, but damage threats are low. Follow-up showers in the 6 to 15 day will keep late fieldwork sluggish in the region. Rains will reach all but a few southwest parts of the Plains in the 1 to 5 and 11 to 15 day periods, with a 6 to 10 day event in the far southern Plains as well. The frequent rains and lack of warmer weather will remain a threat to protein content for maturing hard red winter wheat. While the 6 to 15 day will dry back out in the N. Plains/Canadian Prairies, near-term rains will again aid moisture for early growth.

 

In South America, Brazil had showers limited to the southwest corner of the corner of the corn/ sugar belt yesterday. Frequent showers over the next two weeks will hamper harvest activity, and localized flooding is a concern for the southern 1/2 of corn and southern 3/4 of sugar. Argentina sees showers cross the wheat belt early/mid-week easing dryness in about 2/3 of the crop area. Delays to corn/soy harvest should be minor, as most models favor drier conditions in the 11 to 15 day.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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