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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Russia talked peace as NATO leaders were meeting this week, but officials say that 3,000 Russian troops with tanks are inside Ukraine and the number is increasing. However, we enter Friday trade for the first time in some weeks with traders focused on peace efforts rather than new threats.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Russian officials are discussing limiting grain exports to contain domestic inflation, but the level of containment is so high that grain fundamentals are still considered bearish.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>The dollar pushed to its highest level since July 2013 overnight, before giving way to profit taking.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Grain and oilseed prices bounce overnight following sharp losses the past two days on big crop prospects.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>The frost threat in the northwest Midwest for late next week is more likely this morning, but the damage threat is still limited. Only a minority of the model guidance drops readings to damaging levels (28°F) in these spotty areas.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>The southern third of the corn/soybean belt is expected to be wettest mid- to late month, while northwestern areas should be driest.

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Far southern areas of Russia’s dry wheat belt should see relief next week, while other areas remain dry.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., scattered storms favored east-central NE, west-central/north-central IA, northern IL, and the western Plains in the past day, although disorganized activity was noted in the Southeast. Rains will scatter into the central/northeast Midwest later today, but broadest coverage will occur in the south at the middle of next week. Flooding issues remain localized.

Rains retreat to the southwest Midwest in the 11 to 15 day, with 16 to 30 day rains and potential harvest delays focusing on the southern 1/3 of the corn/soy. The northwest will have the best chances for the driest conditions.

Temperatures late next week have been cooled down further, particularly next Saturday morning as the GFS ensembles have trended colder. This will increase frost risks for MN, northeast IA, western WI, and patchy sections of the Dakotas, but chances are still limited that readings will dip cold enough (28°F or colder) to cause significant damage to corn/soy in these areas, as only a minority of guidance supports such readings. Temperatures should then moderate again but will still tend to average slightly cooler than normal into late September.

Drier weather is returning to the Northern Plains/southern Canadian Prairies during the rest of the month, as light showers (even possibly some very light snow) will tend to focus on the northern/western Canadian Prairies early next week. Frost behind this front may threaten some late-maturing canola in the eastern 1/3 of the Prairies, but damage potential should be small in scope. Sustained warming does not arrive until the 11 to 15 day, and harvest will still be a bit sluggish to recover.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

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