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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight grain markets: Corn + ½,  Soybeans +7, Wheat -1 ¾, Crude -.17, gold +8.80, Dollar +.37, Dow futures -47.
  • The market is back to building in weather premium as the heart of the Corn Belt missed the rains again and there is only one more rain predicted in the next 10 days.
  • Field reports in IL are bringing in results of 10-20% lower than last year. Two private crop tours showed 190.1 bpa estimated vs. 217.4 bpa actual last year and 190 bpa estimated vs. 224 bpa actual last year.
  • It has been reported that Northern Brazil is out of storage space for their record crop yield, with piles stacking up. Brazilian farmers are slow to sell due to the weak Real currency and competing against cheaper U.S. Gulf corn.
  • Wheat has seen a 100K contract swing in the last month from 50K net long to 50K net short.
  • Talk of more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans for fall shipment.
  • USDA Weekly Export Sales Report this morning.
  • Wednesday funds sold 8,000 corn, 8,000 wheat, 3,000 meal. Bought 2,000 soybeans, 3,000 oil.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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