Harvest Forecast: No Delay Inducing Weather Forecast

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Our weekend will finish dry, and the pattern continues through at least a good chunk of Wednesday. We actually like a mostly dry week next week, but yesterday, models introduced a small bit of moisture that tries to move through overnight Wednesday night into very early Thursday. We are not super impressed with this front at the moment and have chosen to leave our forecast mostly alone going into this edition of the harvest forecast. Moisture availability will be key at midweek. The front is moving into a very, very dry air mass – by the time it gets here, we will have been rain-free in most of the state for over 2 and a half weeks. Right now, we will keep our forecast in-line with our Friday numbers, looking for a few hundredths to no more than a quarter of an inch over about 60% of the state. But, we also will say that we think the bias will be toward the low end of the range, and we will not be surprised if we end up seeing the front wash out. Even if we do see some minor rains in there Wednesday night, the dry soils and dry atmosphere will make it so that we likely can be back in the fields by Thursday afternoon. Completely dry weather is in to finish the week.

The tricky part of the harvest forecast continues to be next weekend. We have been talking about a front around the 9th and 10th for a good long time now. As we have followed that period out of the extended window and into the 10-day window, more models are getting that period onto their runs. Some models have advanced that system on the timeline, getting it here earlier. As a heads up, we may have to open a window for this front to arrive as early as next Saturday (7th), and or, it still may wait as late as the 9th. Our bias right now is to hold with late 8th into the 9th arrival time, as the dry air mass likely chews off the leading edge of moisture and actually slows the fronts progression east (we mentioned that theory yesterday). That dry air also may push the moisture northeast, while the front arrives. Either way, for now, we are keeping our best rain chances for Sunday the 8th through the 9th, and perhaps lingering into the 10th. Rain totals are held at .25”-1” with coverage at 80%. But, we are monitoring the situation to look for some rain as early as the 7th, or at the very least, some clouds will likely be increasing on Saturday. The map above shows total cumulative rain potential through the coming 10 day period.

We have no changes in our thoughts on temperatures through the coming period. Temps through the next 2 weeks will be normal to above normal. The coolest air is likely in here today and will warm from here. This pattern fits exceptionally well for harvest into early October, and we think we should be able to continue to make good progress.
Extended Period

In the extended window, behind that system, we move right back to a pattern dominated by strong upper-level high pressure and warmer than normal temps. However, we like a nice mid-month system to develop in the western corn belt around the 13th, and move through the Hoosier state for the 14th into the 15th. Rains can be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 90% of the state as the system sits this morning. However, as we always mention: there is plenty of time for the pattern to change, and it this instance…the longer our dry weather holds, the tougher it will be for any front to trigger harvest delaying rains.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Both weeks three and four looks to have above normal temps. Week three will be well above normal for the 16th through the 22nd, and just above normal for the 23rd through the 29th. Precipitation will likely be near normal for both week, but we like a slightly more active period in week three. There, we see two fronts moving through, one around the 17th, and another closer to the 20th. Both fronts can bring rains up to half an inch. Strong high moves in for week 4, dominating from the 24th through the 27th. There likely will be some moisture trying to come up the backside of that high toward the end of the week 4 period, perhaps late on the 28th into the 29th.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

Week 4
Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)