A few scattered showers will be around from Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday, but coverage and intensity are not all that great. We will leave the door open to a few hundredths to .5” over about 60% of the state, but most areas will be closer to a tenth or two, or less. There is likely better coverage over southern Indiana than up north, but we don’t want to get too cute with our outlook. By Sunday afternoon, we should have most of the showers off to the east. Dry, warm weather remains for the balance of the holiday weekend.
We keep dry weather for Tuesday through most of Thursday next week. Temperatures will be normal to above normal for the period, and we should see good dry down leading to good fieldwork potential. However, we still have a stronger frontal system moving in to finish the week. Showers can develop at soon as Thursday night and hold through Friday, with secondary scattered action lingering for Saturday. Combined rain totals remain at .25”-1.25” with coverage at 90% of Indiana. The map shows combined 10-day rain totals. Keep in mind, these totals come from only 2 events…the scattered action this weekend, and then the system late next week.
In the extended 11-16-day window we see a dry start to the week of the 4th. We are pushing back our next front about 36 hours, now looking for action to arrive midday Thursday, the 6th. Rain totals from that front look to be from half to 1” with coverage at 100% of the state
Tropical storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf this past Thursday and will likely make landfall somewhere from the western FL panhandle over to New Orleans Sunday midday to late afternoon, if not sooner. The storm is not expected to be strong. It will bring heavy rain to the Deep South and the Lower Delta, but should not throw a lot of moisture up our way. As our next front draws closer later in the week next week (remember, arrives late Thursday), any lingering moisture from the tropical storm may enhance the precipitation coming with the front, but that should be where we see our interaction with the tropical event start andstop..
Weeks 3 & 4:
In week three (June 10-16), Temps are likely to be above normal, and it should be somewhat wet, with precipitation above normal as well. We are starting the period off with a minor front Sunday the 10th, bringing up to half an inch of precipitation. The low actually passes off to our north and west, meaning we get just a glancing blow. A much stronger front sweeps through for late in the week, the 14th through the 16th. Rains there can be from half to 2”. Week 4 is mostly dry, with our only front lifting in late the 22nd into the 23rd, bringing up to half an inch of rain. Week 3 should see temps slightly below normal due to the late week front sweeping in, and precipitation near normal. Week 4 will be above normal on temps and near to above normal on precipitation, especially if we get any delay in that front from late in week 3 (definitely possible)