Clouds linger through most of the day today. There can be some left over showers this morning, but in general, moisture is leaving the state, so we expect no more and trace to a few hundredths with only 50% coverage. The longer we go through the day, the less chance of spits and sprinkles we have, although we wont completely wave the all clear flag until mid to late afternoon. Temps will stay cool today thanks to the clouds and some NW flow.
Saturday looks very nice, with sunshine and south winds bringing temps up. However, we still can’t squeeze out any more than about 24 hours’ worth of nice weather. Rain arrives on Sunday, starting in southern Indiana, and then spreads north through the day. We see statewide good rains coming overnight Sunday night, and then holding through Monday early afternoon. We are bumping rain totals to .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state, and then allowing the other 20% to be over 1 inch. . Thunderstorms in southern Indiana will be what pushes rain totals to an inch or more, but we think the best thunderstorm probably stay south of the Ohio river. Moisture finally is done in all areas by Monday evening. The map shows precipitation potential through Monday evening.
Tuesday will be partly to mostly sunny, and Wednesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun, although clouds will be on the increase. Showers develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the biggest rains coming Thursday into Friday. Rain totals can be from .25”-1”, and we think there is good potential for a few thunderstorms too. We turn out partly sunny on Friday and stay dry with sunshine through Saturday the 13th. Our next rain event lifts up from the SW for Sunday the 14th. There we can see another .25”-.75” at least of moisture, with the potential for more into the 15th.
For the rest of the extended period we see a bit of a break for the 16th and 17th, before another strong wave arrives for the 18th-19th-20th. Confidence is low in the timing, but the availability of moisture is high, and we do think that we get another good round of action in there somewhere. The main story here for the region is that, while we have less of a chance of heavy, excessive rains over the coming 2 weeks, we also do not see any longer 3-4-5 day dry stretches that will allow for dry-down on any large scale. So, with less than stellar drying potential, and lower than normal temps expected (especially in the extended period) we are going to see very slow movement toward any type of field work in the next 2-3 weeks.