Cloudy and colder air pushed into the state over the weekend and actually yielded more snow over parts of the state than anticipated. While it was still negligible in terms of accumulation in most areas, it still shows that we will likely have difficulty breaking completely free of clouds as long as we have strong northwest flow over the great lakes in the days ahead. That being said, we do not see a large amount of precipitation over the next 10 days. The active pattern can develop closer to the middle of the month.
High pressure is attempting to work into the state this morning, sitting just west of Chicago. However, this high will likely get ripped apart by an approaching clipper and upper level low that hammers in from the NW by mid to late afternoon. For that reason, we don’t think we are looking at the best weather set up today. We should see more sun than yesterday, but clouds can have a significant presence as well.
A strong upper level low will track across the great lakes region tomorrow, with a strong circulation bringing snows to MI and southern Ontario. At this point, we don’t think there will be much action in the Hoosier state, but we will keep an eye on areas of the state north of US 30 for some light snow. Sunshine should have a better chance of coming out in central and southern Indiana, although we may not be able to completely shun the clouds until we see the strong northwest flow across the great lakes dissipate. That is not likely until the second half of the week. In fact, some models try and sag the hit and miss snow down into central Indiana Wednesday. We do not like that solution, and are keeping our forecast dry at this time.
Drier pattern emerges for the second half of the week, with a strong high pressure dome coming in from the NW. We should see better sunshine potential and temps near normal for the time of year.
Another frontal boundary shows up on the scene Sunday morning, sweeping in from the west. However there just is not much moisture available for the front. Right now it looks like a few hundredths to at most a tenth will be available. Temps will warm some, and we can see snows up north, but mostly rain central and south. Coverage will likely end up at 60%, but the totals are really insignificant.
The rest of the 10 day period is dry for Monday through next Wednesday morning, although there is potential for another weak upper level disturbance over the Great lakes and MI next Tuesday night.
The extended forecast still has potential for 2 strong fronts in the 11-16 forecast window. However, at this point, until those fronts arrive we are looking at a nearly normal temp set up for early in the month, and a below normal precipitation pattern.