Strong north winds coming around the backside of low pressure right across the Great Lakes yesterday kept more snow around than we had hoped for. Today we should see north winds subside, and that should allow clouds to mix with more sun. However, cold temps stay, keeping us near normal today and tomorrow. We will continue to keep an eye out for a few flurries up north, but really think that we see mostly dry weather today and tomorrow.
Snow is still on the way for the overnight Friday night and then continues through Saturday and Sunday. We are going to leave our snow forecast alone this morning. We are expecting a coating to 2 inches over the northern third of the state, and 2-6” in central and southern Indiana. Much like yesterday, we think the heaviest action will be down in far southern and southwestern parts of the state, near the Ohio River, and including Evansville. Track still is key, but this looks to be a good, solid snow event. Moisture looks to be a little more impressive on some models today, but less impressive on others, which is why we are net unchanged on our forecast. On Sunday, we see light snow and flurries end in the early morning in NW parts of the state, and then slowly over the rest of the state from NW to SE as the day progresses. The map shows snow potential from Friday night through Sunday night.
Dry weather returns for the first half of next week. Monday may still be a bit of a transition day, with some sunshine up north, but more clouds holding on over the southern half of the state. Then, high pressure moves in for Tuesday. Wednesday still should bring sunshine. Clouds will increase on Thursday.
Our next system arrives on Friday, or perhaps overnight Thursday night in some areas. This brings mostly snow, but perhaps a bit of rain as well in southern Indiana. Moisture totals do not look too dramatic, but we won’t rule out .3” of an inch of liquid equivalent, particularly in the far south. Coverage will be around 70%. This system is slowing this morning and arrives about 18 hours later than we were seeing yesterday.
That system and the days follow start to show some dramatic differences between models. The American model initiates a very, very active pattern and suggests significantly more moisture. This starts coming as rain in the Thursday night and Friday system, and then a very strong snow storm for the 19th and 20th. The Euro is much drier but brings faster moving little waves of moisture. With these differences, and no consensus for the extended period at this time, we will leave our 11-16 day forecast alone this morning. We look for the best moisture to be in for Saturday the 19th. There still is the potential for that event to end as snow, as cold air blasts in behind. From there we remain cold with snow and flurries possible for the 22nd – 23rd – 24th. We become very cold through that period with temperatures moving to well below normal temperature levels.