Lake effect snow is still a story over northern parts of the state today. After some of the snows made it farther south than anticipated yesterday, we see no reason why we can’t duplicate that this time around. So, we will be on the lookout for at least some snow flurry action down to US 24 in north central and northeast Indiana. The lake snows pull back some tomorrow, and should be limited to mostly Laporte, St. Joe and Elkhart counties. In those counties today and tomorrow we can see accumulations measured in inches. Outside of there, a fresh coating is possible. Away from lake snows, we have only clouds to mix with sunshine today and tomorrow.
South winds Saturday bring temps up ahead of our next system. That system brings precipitation in for late Sunday afternoon and evening. The system still is tracking a bit farther south and east, but total available moisture is lower now too. So, action starts as snow Sunday evening through the overnight. We still think we can see some mixing and changeover to rain in the southern third of the state, but an all-out rain event is not likely. As cold air returns, we do not see as much snow potential behind the front. We are reducing our total precipitation range to a liquid equivalent of .25”-.5”.The map above shows total liquid equivalent precipitation for the event. The highest end of the range looks to be over southern Indiana. This means we see snow in a lot of the state, but should be able to miss out on any absolutely epic snow storm development. Our official snow totals will be out tomorrow morning, but we are leaning toward a 2-5 inch range over 90% of the state.
Arctic high pressure comes in behind the front for Monday night through Thursday. This will take temperatures to below normal levels through most of the week. A front slowly works into the northern half of the state for next Friday. Cold air from the north butts up against moderating air over southern Indiana. WE expect snows, potential several inches worth, from I-70 northward. Closer to I-70, we may see an attempt at mixing with a bit of rain. Generally, southern Indiana sees nothing. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals can be from .1”-.4”. Coverage will be at 90% of areas north of I-70.
The extended 11-16 day forecast window starts with a nice front around the 14th, but this front has lost a good deal of its moisture. IT likely is being robbed by the front for late next week. Still, we can add a little more light snow to the area. Cold air holds through mid-month, but with a strong upper level ridge building over the western US, we think that eventually, we will see a bit of a “thaw” the second half of the month, before another arctic blast takes over.