The hope of more precipitation is in our forecast this morning. Today we should see scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder across Indiana. We have been looking for this since early last week, and we should see good verification of moisture today. Amounts are not going to be blowing anyone away, as we see only an additional .1”-.7” today. The map below shows rain totals through midnight tonight. However, there was some widely scattered action yesterday, and we even saw some unexpected heat-based rain and thunderstorm events pop up on Saturday. So, some of us are sitting better than others, but today we should see coverage at roughly 70% of the state. Everything will be done by, or shortly after midnight, if not before. We are hopeful that today’s moisture, along with the hit and miss stuff from this weekend, will promote better rain chances going forward, because we need more.
We are dry tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday statewide. However, we are allowing for rain in our forecast on Friday. This is a change from last Friday, where we were skeptical about rain Thursday but inserted small amounts in the forecast. We start this week backing the rain up a day and strengthening chances. Amounts are still not all that impressive, but we are leaving the potential for those to grow. So, on Friday, with showers and a thunderstorm or two over 70% of the state, we can see rain totals of half an inch or less, and most of us will be in the .25” area. The forecast pattern gets a little more interesting in the wake of those initial rains Friday. What happens Saturday and Sunday? Most of this depends on the track of the low. IF it moves from someplace like near St. Louis up toward Northern Michigan, we likely see no additional moisture Saturday, and definitely none on Sunday. If the low takes a track like from Peoria to Detroit and up through southern Ontario, we can see some wrap around moisture and lingering showers through Saturday and even Sunday. Currently, the models are divided. Our previous forecast was dry, but we are opening the door to a few leftover showers Saturday morning, followed by clearing Saturday afternoon and Sunday. However, we will watch the track of this emerging low through the rest of the week.
We are dry to start the week next week as we kick off the extended forecast window. However, we still see a nice front around the 24th (next Tuesday) that will bring half to maybe 1 inch of rain to 80% of the state. Then we go back dry for the 25th-27th. A minor disturbance for the 28th looks to stay mostly south of the Ohio River, and currently is not expected to have much of an impact.
Temperatures this week will be near normal to even a bit below through midweek. Get back to normal to finish the week but cool off this weekend and early next week. Temperatures this weekend will be in the upper 70s mostly, to low 80s, a far cry from this past weekend!