Dry weather settles in for the next 3 days. Sunshine will mix with clouds today, will dominate tomorrow, and then clouds are on the increase again for Sunday ahead of our next weather system. Temps will climber a bit, but will still be just near normal for the weekend.
Our next system still is on track to move up into the state overnight Sunday night into early Monday. The origin of this storm is still the plains, and it will lift in from the south and west through Monday. A new wrinkle this morning is a move farther west of strong to severe thunderstorm action out of this circulation and a speeding up of that wave. This is only 1 model run that is suggesting that, but since we find ourselves going into the weekend, we need to address the potential. For now, we will leave our rain totals along at half to 1.5” combined from the 2 day event Monday and Tuesday, with coverage at 70%. However, we need to keep the door open to some changes when we chat again on Monday, which could bump rain totals significantly, and bring a threat of severe weather to areas from Kokomo to Wabash to Fort Way on Tuesday. Time will tell how the heavy rain and thunderstorm threat evolves. Yesterday we thought the threat was farther east into Ohio, and later in the week, overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. So, there is some uncertainty on the strong stuff this morning, but the rain threats are still solid for the first half of the week. The map shows rain totals through next Wednesday morning.
The rest of the week next week stays dry in our forecast. The extended period though looks wetter, with rain chances lingering over Indiana every day of the 11-16 day forecast period. In addition, the rains ramp up in intensity toward the end of the extended window. If this comes together as we see it right now, we should have good rains through early August. However, we are noticing that the trends over the past few days have been to take rains out of the farther out events. Next week, for example, has less coverage overall, even though we are having to extend the chances of rain farther out.