Two days of moderate to heavy rain over the state, and then finally we will start to put this soggy pattern behind us. A strong low moved out of NE and into IA and MO yesterday. That wave is coming right along the stationary front that has been draped across Indiana the past two days. Rain will start benignly enough but will is likely to really ramp up this afternoon and this evening. We think there is an excellent chance of strong to severe weather over the state this afternoon and tonight, and then again tomorrow. The best threat of strong to severe weather will be over the northern half of the state, closer to where the low will be moving through. Rain totals today and tomorrow combined could be an additional 1”-3”, perhaps 4” Coverage will be nearly the entire state for the combined period. The map shows cumulative precipitation from today through Saturday evening.
As we mentioned above we should start to see the precipitation taper off this weekend, rather early We expect clouds to give way to sun Saturday. While we can’t rule out a few scattered showers over central parts of the state, most of Indiana will see no new additional precipitation. Central Indiana showers will amount to a few hundredths to a tenth or two, with 40% coverage or less. We see partly sunny skies for the entire day Sunday.
Next week will start dry, with sunshine, blue sky and lower humidity for the Monday through Wednesday afternoon period. We should be able to see some good drying those days, and evaporation rates will be nearly maxed out at .25” of moisture leaving the surface per day.
Rain and thunderstorm action returns to the state later Wednesday afternoon and evening. For the most part it stays north of US 24 and into northeast Indiana for the initial 12 hours through Wednesday overnight. Rain spreads south and east through Thursday and lingers into at least the start of Friday. Rain totals can be from half to 1” combined for the 2-day period and may be able to extend up to an inch and a half on the top end if we see a longer tail to the system through more of Friday. Coverage will be around 75%.
The extended 11-16 day period remains mostly dry as a nice strong high pressure dome develops over the eastern third of the country. This will promote a substantial upper level ridge over the top of the high. That ridge will make it tough for any cold fronts to work into the region and will make most systems slide by to the south. Dry air will knock back any moisture. This should corn belt hits a strong ridge over the eastern third of the country and falls apart. A strong surface lead to a return of warm air for early in July.
Temps are a little cooler today with the rain and clouds. However, south of the front, the southern half of the state will definitely be warmer, and may even flirt with some above normal temps, at least this afternoon. Then cooler than normal air is in for the rest of the week, weekend and early next week. WE flip and go back warm for the second half of next week and may see well above normal temps next Thursday through Saturday.