No changes in our thought process this morning. Even though it took longer to get clouds out of some parts of the state yesterday, we are starting off this morning with high pressure over east central and southeast Indiana, which will bring brighter skies. We continue to see dry weather all the way through the rest of the week and the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise and will be anywhere from 5-10 degrees above normal late this week and weekend. We continue to see Hurricane Florence making landfall somewhere in the Carolinas between Thursday night and Friday. From there it pushes slowly inland, and backs up the flow pattern across the country, benefiting us greatly here, and extending our drying. Humidity values will be low, and we should see excellent evaporation rates.
We are keeping our forecast dry for Monday-Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday next week as well. However, we want to throw out something to watch. If Florence comes right inland, slamming the coast and having good velocity, there is a chance that the momentum can throw moisture farther into the mainland. We mention this because the European model last night tried to introduce some moisture into Indiana, a likely offshoot of Florence, next Monday night through Tuesday. We think this is too premature to make such a call and a little bit overdone. We think that Florence will slow as she arrives at the coast and may even do a little “loopty-loop” around just off the NC coast, before finally coming ashore. That lessens the west-northwest momentum of the storm and likely makes it difficult to push over the Appalachians. Still, we have to be open to the potential of moisture trying to come all the way back into our neck of the woods. It is something we will watch and revisit again in coming days, but for now, we are leaving our dry period intact through early next Wednesday.
Our next front arrives midday to afternoon next Wednesday. It does not look all that impressive but can bring a few hundredths to .3” of moisture to about 70% of the state. This front is gone by midday Thursday, and we return to drier weather through the rest of the week. The map above right shows cumulative rain potential over the next ten days…through next Thursday.
In the extended period, our next front around the 23rd and 24th looks to be delayed by about 12 hours or so and may be more of a 24th alone or even a 24th-25th event. That system also does not look as strong and may bring up to half an inch of rain to about 60% of the state.
Temps remain warm through this extended period, but strong Canadian high pressure is sitting to our northwest all through the period and will only need a nice front to work through to open the door to cooler air. Right now, we are keeping temps above normal through the 23th, but may have to bring them down after that.