Sunny, warm and dry today. In fact, we are looking at the warmest day of the week, and likely the warmest day of the rest of the year. That’s not just us being pessimistic, but realistic, as we see pattern change coming behind frontal boundaries over the next week to 10 days. So, today, with highs in the upper 80s and flirting with 90, it will feel like summer again, while we flip the calendar into fall. Today will feature low humidity again, and excellent evaporation to go along with south winds.
A cold front moves through the state tomorrow. The front is not all that impressive, at least in terms of moisture content. We see scattered showers bringing a few hundredths to a quarter inch in most areas. We still won’t rule out some higher amounts of course, but our concern over thundershowers or has decreased considerably in the past 24 hours. Coverage today will be around 70%.
Dry weather is back for the weekend in most of the state. We see heavy rains staying south of the Ohio River, but a recent model run is trying to make a case for taking some rains, particularly on Sunday, north of the river into the southern tier counties of the state. We are not ready to make that change in our forecast yet but will be looking closely at this tomorrow morning and will make a decision on any forecast change than before we get to the weekend.
Rain is back with moderate to heavy rains for Monday and Tuesday. We see rain totals of a half to 2” combined over nearly 100% of the state. These rains will come in bands, so it may not rain constant for the period, but we will see good rain on multiple occasions. There can be some morning showers on Wednesday before the sun returns, and the sun will work in from north to south. In fact, we can see some additional rains up to .4” south of I-70 for Wednesday before everything ends. Then we are fully dry for next Thursday.
Friday brings our next system a little faster than our previous forecast. That event has a potential for half to 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. There is a threat of stronger thunderstorms as well. However, unlike the early week system, the moisture does not hang around long and will be gone by midnight next Friday night. The map below shows rain totals from tomorrow through next Friday night…this includes the 2 big system and tomorrow little minor batch of moisture.
A longer-term dry pattern kicks off next Saturday to end our 10-day forecast window, and then continues all the way through the 11-16 day forecast period. We have strong Canadian high pressure slowly meandering across the central and eastern corn belt in the period, and we should see low humidity and good drying again. The difference there vs what we have seen here recently will be temperatures…we should be significantly cooler as we finish September and move into October than right now. Looking past the end of the 11-16 day period, we see a strong front building to the west, and that should bring rains of at least 1 inch back in for the October 6th and 7th time frame.
Temps are well above normal today (like we already covered at the start of our forecast). We go to near and slightly above normal behind tomorrow’s front for the weekend and early next week. The behind the Monday-Tuesday rain event, we see our most significant drop in temps, as we spend the rest of the week normal to below normal. We make another move lower in temps behind next Friday’s system. We are tentatively looking for our first light frost (not killing frost) in northern and eastern parts of the state around October 1st-3rd. (map of potential morning lows for October 1 is below).