No major change in thought process this morning. Temps were very warm yesterday, reaching 90 degrees late in the afternoon over northern Indiana, which was a little sooner than expected. Still, temperatures will remain well above normal through the balance of the week, weekend and the first half of this week. It will not be surprising to see some records challenged over the coming 4-5 days. Now, these warm temps, especially with the moisture laden air (it’s very humid) means we can see some thunderstorms fire off in spots. Last evening these were mostly along the OH line and up into MI, but we need to watch closely over the rest of the state during this warm spell.
Our next front arrives on Wednesday. As we have mentioned previously, this front will have looked much more impressive over the western corn belt from late Monday through Tuesday but will be running out of gas as if finally arrives Wednesday. This front will have rained itself out for the most part off to the west. Here we are looking for clouds and just a minor threat of rains, perhaps with totals of a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 50% of the state. This should not be significant enough to promote major harvest delays. The biggest change we see with the front is a big cool down behind it. Temperatures will drop substantially back to normal levels at least, and there is a threat of slightly below normal temps. This will yield a drop of 20 degrees or more from Tuesday highs to Thursday and Friday highs. Again…these will be normal temps for late September…but a stark contrast to what we are going through right now. The last part of the week will be dry, as will the weekend. The map above shows cumulative rain potential now through October 1.
In the extended period, we have a continuation of a pattern that features upper-level high pressure in over southern Canada and the eastern US. We do have a minor disturbance working through the great lakes around the 4th that can trigger scattered showers in Michigan. We need to watch this for movement down into northern Indiana. But, at this time, that looks to be a minor concern. A second system with slightly better potential arrives late 11-16 day period. This front can trigger up to .3” of rain, with 60% coverage, but it also looks similar to the front we expect next week, which means we may see it rain itself out before arriving here. Overall, the extended period looks mostly favorable for harvest as well, at this point.