Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 4/04/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 4/04/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhelmi

SHARE

Financial
Dow up 56 and S&P and NASDAQ both 6 higher
Employment report tomorrow cones out following negative ADP, job less claims and lay off figures
Europe and Japan renew pledge to try to stimulate their troubled economies but yen sank and so did European stocks
North Korean threats remain and some form of hostilities is possible
Copper fell below 3.40 supports
Fed handling of the phase out of the $85 b per month bond buying will be challenging

Livestock
June cattle fall about $1
Boxed beef steady
Cash trade at $128 seen
Hogs ease lower as pork demand remains lackluster
Changing of pork product titles is meaningless

Grain and soybeans
Defensive trade with May corn off 12, May soybeans down 8 and May wheat closed 5 lower
Low volume in all Ag trade is sign of risk-reward uncertainty
Rain makes grain but it has not happened yet
S/D corn old crop carry over projected at 850-900 m bushels with over 2 b new crop if weather cooperates
More than average rain could press December corn down to $4.50, and if it doesn’t rain the $8.00 mark is not out of the question
Exports lacked demand motivation
All Ag market are weighed to the short side
Palm oil declined as crude slips limiting bio fuel demand

9:41 update

Dow up just 15 at open
Jobless claims up 28,000 to 385,000
Copper at 3.31 breaks support
Dollar up 60 to 83.35
Crude down $1.21 to $ 93.24
Euro slips further to 1.278
Ag markets quiet steady in meats and 5-7 lower in grains and soybeans

 

Opening Comment

Financial
Dow up 50 in pre opening trade
ECB leaves benchmark rate unchanged at .75%
Bank of Japan announces aggressive QE easing to try to stimulate deflationary economy
Japanese Yen falls to 95 on the dollar
Jobs report Friday
ADP jobs were light at 158,000
50,000 layoffs last report
Jobless claims estimate 350,000
Fed may begin to wind down $85 b bond buying program by summer
The handling of the unwinding will be tricky and critical
WTI crude up $ .21 after falling $2 yesterday on report
DAX up .4% and FTSE down the same
Dollar index jumps to 83.17 up 43
Euro 1.28
North Korea authorizes nuclear attack

Livestock
Some cattle trade south of Amarillo at $127-29
Boxed beef steady and volume has been light
April cattle at $5 premium to June
Beef export 10,500 is 47% off four week average
Bird flu deaths rise in China
Kills 118,000 cattle and 425,000 hogs
Pork product name changes are meaningless at best
Pork cutout on 32 loads, again light, with carcass off $ .11 and loins and hams steady

Grain and soybeans
About 4 cents lower over night across the board
Wheat rally Wednesday was sparked by 500,000 Chinese purchase rumor
Wheat is heavily positioned on the short side
Specs are also still long some corn
Export sales: 141,000 tons of old crop wheat and 178,000 of new, 354,000 old corn and 33,000 new and 392,000 of soybeans and 355,000 new with China buying 138,000 and 355,000 respectively, lower as expected as S America comes on
No Chinese wheat sales in report
Kansa s soybean plant shut down so watch for impact on crush
Dollar climbs to 83.17 throttling exports