Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 5/9/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 5/9/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

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Financial
Dow off 22, S&P down 6 and NASDAQ down 4
Defensive spec longs take stocks op off their lows late
Contrary bears see a 5-10% corrective action possible and that would be a textbook reaction
DAX closed up .2%
Dollar surprises 100 versus the Yen
Dollar index roars up 82 to end at 82.72, and that’s a large move on the index
All US exports are impaired by such a rise
Gold drops $18
WTI crude oil off $.70
Whole sale inventories were up .4%, and that means slowed demand
Mortgage delinquencies increase

Livestock
June cattle settled on support at $120.20
Boxed beef has soared to over $204 but at that expense demand is restrained
Beef features this week again favored cheaper cuts
June hogs sold off $1.22 to $90.55 with support at $89
Beef export sales were light in both red meats
Mothers Day is the biggest cook out holiday of the year and the weather looks OK

Grain and soybeans
Firm cash markets supported rallies in the grains and oilseeds
July corn closed at $6.48 with resistance at $6.60 and a gap beyond up to $6.70
July soybeans wound up at $14.10 with resistance at $14.20
July wheat ended 6 cents under its $7.30 resistance
S/D out at 11 AM CDT Friday morning is a best guess projection but no survey of corn and soybeans will be out until August
Today’s rallies put the markets at risk if any surprise occurs as volatility is extreme
Corn carry over is expected at about 2 b bushels for 13/14 crop year
S American production is seam a little less in Argentine corn and soybeans and mixed in Brazil
Weekly export sales were in range in wheat and soybeans and light again in corn
New sales were reported to China in soybeans 110,000 tons and corn 75,000 tons, neither of which were simulative
Egyptian wheat stocks are at 1 MT versus 209,000 tons a year ago, so their demand is limited
Jordan 150,000 tons and Iraq 50,000 are small parcels of wheat, likely filled elsewhere
US wheat is stabilized, and world suppliers are ample

10:51 update

Dow off 24
Wholesale inventories up .4% as sales ease
June cattle on $120 support
June hogs between at $91.30 ($89-$93)
Little market action in grains or oilseeds
110,000 tons of 13/14 beans to China is routine
China also buys 75,000 of new crop corn, a small purchase

 

 

Financial
Stocks expected to take a little breather at the opening
DAX off .2%
Jobless claims 323,000 versus 335,000 expected
Watch cyclical stocks, tech, energy, materials and financial, for possible boost of equities
Chinese consumer prices up 2.4%, which may curtail accommodative policy
Bank of England freezes rates at .5%
Greek unemployment 26.7% from 27.2 %
G& meeting Friday and Saturday in London, on banking regulations
WTI crude off $ .67 at $95.95
Gold falls $11 to $1462
Dollar index 82.02 up 11

Livestock
Cash cattle trade lightly at $2 lower in $126 in Texas and Kansas
Choice boxed jump $3.48 and select $.48
New record high in choice limits consumer buying power
Stronger beef margins indicate higher slaughter
Pork mired deeply in the red
Pork cutout off $.20
Beef exports 11,100 tons and pork 9,600 both light
Cattle kill up 3000 and hogs down 30,000
Feeder cattle have been in a free fall

Grain and soybeans
Mild mixed evening trade
Drier forecast so planters are rolling
Corn stocks seen above 2 b in Friday’s S/D report
6% reduction in yearly ethanol production may boost old crop corn carry over but still ultra tight
3 cargoes of Brazilian beans said to be headed for US
Corn basis up 5 and beans 15 better
Weekly exports blasé at 239,000 tons of old wheat and 226,000 of new, 115,000 old corn and 169,000 new with soybeans 193,000 old and 392,000 of new with China taking 360,000
Keep your eyes on the skies and be on guard for mid day forecast changes, if they occur.
Extreme volatility lurks behind every corner