Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/19/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/19/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

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Financial
Fed statement was not much changed but contained what if’s, which unhinged the stocks.
The Dow down 206, S&P 23 and NASDAQ 39 lower
A real change in policy may not occur until 2015, depending on the economy
A lot of speculative hot air had been pumped into equities ahead of the Fed announcement
10 year notes rose to 2.32%
The dollar index to 81.41 up 80
Gold down $16 to $1351
WTI crude off $ .50 to 497.94
Check out over seas markets tomorrow morning

Livestock
The pull of the pork drew cattle higher as well
August cattle $120.22 up $1.20
August hogs a new high at $98.40 up $1.10 with a little profit taking at the close
Cash cattle may trade down to $119
Choice beef lost $1
Pig virus is spreading and that propelled the hogs
Pork cut out up on a good volume of trade

Grain and soybeans
Market will always go to the orders and today they were stops above the markets
Dec corn poked up into resistance at $5.69
Nov beans at $13.06 dropped off a bit at the end with resistance at $13.25
July wheat at $7.05 is looking up at $7.30
The supply side benefits from good weather for soybean plantings to finish up and corn to get started.
Hotter temps are predicted but how hot, where and the duration are the keys
The sharp rise in the dollar squashes exports
India and the Black sea have good wheat crops
Heat stress may harm Chinese wheat
6-28 acreage will not be greatly changed and yields prospects have risen in both corn and soybeans
The stocks report center piece will be soybean crush which has been running above expectations
It is a long way to go before these crops get in the bin.

10:01 update

Dow off 30
Beef trade not big enough to push cash
August hogs at their summit
High volume port trade at higher prices
Hotter temps coming but no great threat
Gulf corn up 7, beans 4 higher and wheat steady
Chinese Bean exports for June estimated at 7 MT up from 5 MT in May
India too announce boost on wheat exports
Black sea has outstanding grain crops

 

Financial
Dow may open over 100 higher ahead of Fed policy announcement at 1 PM CDT
No change expected in bond buying effort is expected
Bernanke is due to leave at year’s end
His successor will likely come from within the Fed and best guess is Yellen
A change in policy is not foreseen
Tapering of QE will likely be handled in a transitional manner due to the still soft economy, and that’s proper
WTI crude $98.63 up $ .19
Gold $1370 up $3
Dollar index 80.55 down 6
DAX steady and FTSE off .4%
Nikkei up 1.8%

Livestock
Beef clearance was good last weekend and that will entice a larger kill
Cash cattle $124a
Choice boxed beef $200
COF Friday total 97%, placements 99% and marketing’s 98 %
Cold storage less pork and more beef
Cattle kill 125,000 and hogs 394,000
Pork cutout on 330 loads with carcass up $2.61, loins $4.12, hams $1.21 and bellies $ .79 better
Starting line up for features $ .78 legs and thighs, $7.98 choice T-bones and $1.28 assorted pork chops

Grain and soybeans
Weather good for finishing of bean planting and beginning development of corn and beans
We are now in the prime yield creation period
6-28 final acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports
Some old crop corn moving
Tasseling is the key to bin clean out
Soybean crush larger than expected and that dislodges USDA formula
Stocks report in the prime measure of domestic usage
Other than the Chinese buy of 240,000 tons of beans, which is routine, there is not much going on