Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/18/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/18/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

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Financial
Stocks higher at mid range
Fed meeting statement tomorrow and no change in stimulus buying is expected which propelled the rally today
WTI crude consistently up $ .37
Gold down $16
Dollar 80.62 off 16
At this time it is not a good idea to hold positions in any of these speculatively dominated markets

Livestock
Cattle hold near their low
Hogs test their high
Pork cutout has been strong
Beef has not taken real advantage of the price comparison
Features tomorrow so we will see how retailers set up their specials

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn rallies into resistance zone above $5.50
Nov beans trolling around near unchanged
Wheat up 6 cents and in range as is the others
Weather good for a few days as soybean plantings finish
Corn plantings that will not materialize or about 10% will be more than offset by yield improvements on the other 90%
We are just getting into the prime development windows in corn and then beans, so it is premature to make crop judgments
Acreage 6-28
Crop survey in early August
China bought 240,000 tons of new crop beans, but that is routine
Rain moving in the Corn Belt on Wednesday and its timing may be ideal

12:14 update

Is the report of a foiling of an attempt to bomb the NYSE a good dead, or a political ploy?
It is disturbing to think that way, but it fits the pattern of deception

9:46 update

Dow opens up 42
Choice beef was up $1.66
Packers cut hog kills on short supplies
6-10 day forecast above average temps and rainfall
Corn and soybeans behind schedule but good catch up prospects
11.6 m acres of beans to go but could get in next couple of days ahead of storms
China routinely buys 240,000 tons of 13/14 beans
Wheat harvest at 11% versus a 25% five year average
Corn a draw early

 

Financial
Stocks called higher ahead of CPI +.2% expected and housing starts about 950,000 forecasts
UK CPI up 2.7%
Syrian conflict may hasten US EU trade pact
Syria warns EU about arming rebels
US has been befuddled
Fed meeting Wednesday and no change is expected at this time in QE stimulus
No tightening until 2014, or after Bernanke leaves is one popular theory
Obama said Bernanke did an outstanding job, but stayed longer than he wanted—strange comment
WTI crude $97.89 up $.12
Gold steady at $1384
Dollar unchanged at 80.78
Yen down ahead of Fed meeting

Livestock
The CME casino environment peaked as August cattle ran up $1.50 in a few minutes
At a real casino they at least buy you a drink when you loose your shirt
Beef clearance good last weekend as pork has spiked to its highs
Summer demand is usually soft in the red meats and no change of that pattern is likely
Cattle kill as it has been 123,000 and hogs remain light at 391,000
Boxed beef $201 choice and $184 select
Pork cutout 219 loads with carcass up $ .50, loins plus $.36, hams $1.39 and bellies $.22

Grain and soybeans
Corn off a penny and soybeans 6 better as was wheat, or not much
Wheat harvest advancing in the southwest
Global competition presses wheat
Feed wheat is in demand at feedlots
6-28 acres may be less corn but yields are up
Corn and soybean rating 64% good to excellent
Crush indicates its 19% ahead of the USDA forecast schedule
About 1 in 5 plants will have to be closed to meet target
A question is, can we import enough beans to keep plants cooking
Tight corn holding as producers waits to see teaseling
There is little mention of reportable or 100,000 tons or more export sales
Light Ag volume threatens intense volatility if something happens