Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 8/1/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 8/1/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

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Financial
Stocks hold lion’s share of gains with the Dow up 127 points, NASDAQ49 and S&P 21 higher
Employment report tomorrow and 184,000 jobs are expected
Watch the temp jobs as they have dominated job growth, and they don’t provide benefits
Remember no signal report tells the story, the trend over months is a truer indicator, and there is the fact that many reports are ultimately revised, so get used to not really knowing what is going on.
WTI crude up nearly $3 as Chinese manufacturing improved
Gold hardly changed
Dollar index up 91 to 82.37, still in range, but that is a sizable gain

Livestock
Oct cattle closed below $125 support with the next level at $122
Boxed beef off $ .16 is a worthless leadership factor
Dressed weights up 7 # from a year ago, which is the cheap feed effect
Oct hogs flushed a few shorts closing in range at $ .75 higher or $84.07
Normal seasonal rise in pork supplies is upon us

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn and Nov beans down about 14 cents
Sept wheat firmed late on light short covering ending down a nickel
Nov beans blew away their support at $12.00 and now look to monthly charts at $11.50
Dec corn struggling to stay above $4.60, and then maybe $4.20
The crops in general look great
Weekly exports were 1 MT plus in corn and beans, with wheat at 597,000 all good but bulge in the dollar threatens our export sales of every thing
6-10 day forecast is cooler than normal with some rain
Evert year at this time crackpot weather guessers talk about an early frost, but that is only happened once in 1974
The markets themselves are better indicators then any pseudo science

10:11 update

Stocks hold gains with Dow up 127
DAX up 1.5%
WTI crude oil up $2.33
Dec corn off 7 cents at $ 4.72
Nov beans $12.04 down 2
Sept wheat 7 lower as short covering abates
6-10 forecast cool with some rain
Dollar surge is long term negative for exports
Brazil buys 400,000 tons of US HRW, and is still shopping due to domestic shortages and reduced Argentine production
Ukraine exports estimate 9 MT
Black sea wheat is cheaper than US
Cattle choppy and beef trade lax
Seasonal rise in pork supplies, adds weight to hogs near their lows

 

Financial
Dow opens 131 higher, S&P over 1700 up 16 and NASDAQ plus 31
Jobless claims hit 5 ½ year low at 326,000 versus 345,000 expected
Chinese PMI 50.3 versus 49.9
Dow early up over 100 points
New jobs Friday expected at 184,000
PC Penny reduced to sell rating
ECB leaves rates unchanged
WTI crude up $2 to $107.04
Gold up $12 at $1325
Dollar jumps 63 to 82.08

Livestock
Cattle bids and offers are far apart
Boxed beef $ .49 lower choice and steady on select
Kill on par 125,000 and 406,000
Pork volume 379 or active wit carcass $ .40 higher, loins off $2.77, hams up $1.22 and bellies plus $5.33
Oct cattle range $125-127
Oct hogs $82.50-$87

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn off 4 cents at $ 4.75, Nov beans $12.05 down 1 and Sept wheat 3 lower at $6.61
All in support red zone
Weather ideal
Frost talk is boloney, it happens every year, but has only damaged crops in 1974
Before new corn comes out of south basis levels firm
Seasonal maintenance for soybean processors
Weekly export sales: 597,000 tons of wheat with China 129,000, 1.09 MT corn with Mexico 304,000 and 306,000 unknown, soybean 1 MT China buying 558,000 and 306,000 to unknown