Listen to analysis with Arlan Suderman of Waterstreet Solutions
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.44 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Although soybean production remains unchanged, 2013/14 supplies are raised 10 million bushels on stronger-than-expected early season soybean imports. Soybean exports are increased 25 million bushels to 1.475 billion reflecting record commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.690 billion as strong foreign demand for soybean meal, led by the European Union and Southeast Asia, more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use. Soybean oil supplies are increased in line with higher crush. With total use unchanged, soybean oil stocks are increased 55 million pounds to 1.69 billion. Although total use is unchanged, soybean oil used for methyl ester is projected lower reflecting expanded production of non-ester based renewable diesel. Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 150 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and soybean meal are projected higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2013/14 is projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel, up 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $400 to $440 per short ton, up 25 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 38 to 42 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 502.3 million tons, up 2.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and palm kernel only partly offset by reductions in cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and copra. Global soybean production is projected at a record 284.9 million tons, up 1.4 million due to increases for Argentina and Canada. Argentina production is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 1.0 million due to higher projected area. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 70.0 million tons, up 2.1 million due to gains for Canada and Australia. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 1.9 million tons to 18.0 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Favorable conditions throughout the growing season resulted in record rapeseed yields this year. Other changes this month include lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 128.3 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.8 million tons, up 2.1 million as lower soybean stocks in the United States are more than offset by increased soybean stocks in Argentina, Canada, the European Union, and Russia, and higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.