Cold air rides into the state today, and will bring the coldest air of the season so far. In fact, I look for this to set the bar for the season, at least for a while, for the cold. Cold air blasts next week may equal this, but likely will not exceed what we have in store here for the next 48 hours. The cold air also will bring a bit of precipitation potential. We look for light snow statewide…but emphasis will be on “light”. We only see a few hundredths of an inch of liquid available, and at most a coating to an inch. Slightly better snows may pop up over OH…but Indiana will be only in minor snow. Winds may make life just a bit more interesting. In fact, we see winds screaming down the full fetch of Lake Michigan later this afternoon and evening, so northern locations will need to keep an eye on some lake snow enhancement. This will be not hing like this past Saturday in those areas, but still, it may cause a few headaches.
Again, the cold air parks over us through the end of the week. Temps will be well below zero over a large part of the state. We may approach some record lows state wide tomorrow morning (19th) and Friday morning (20th) which are in a -6 to -13 degree range statewide.
Our next system is still on the way for the weekend. As expected, models have the low wobbling around a little bit, with the most recent runs taking the low back south by just a little bit. We are going to continue to talk about a Lafayette to Fort Wayne axis for snow. However, what is still up in the air is the question whether this is the axis of “heaviest snow” or the line where the decent measurable snow stops. Either way…the event is likely to start as some rain or even freezing rain Saturday before switching over to snow. The track is one that means we will see some snow and some significant snow across the state, but we will continue to hold off on accumulations in our forecast until late Thursday into Friday. We want to give this system time to work out the track on its own. The latest European snow map is posted here…but this is not our official forecast.
Behind that weekend system, cold air is in to start the week with another push well below normal. In general, we like a couple of strong arctic highs to push in, but in-between, we see a strong clipper like low racing across the great lakes around next Tuesday into Wednesday. This could bring some light snows and some wind to the northern half of the state.
From there, the pattern gets more active as we finish February and move into March. A strong system comes out of TX and heads toward the OH valley for the 1st, another front hits us head on for the 3rd-4th, and after a warm up , we could see a powerful low come out of the 4 corners area for the 8th. March will likely come in like a Lion
Rain continues to work through the northern half of Argentina corn areas today and will finally exit tomorrow morning. So far, totals have fallen right in our half to 2 inch range, and there is no reason to change it going forward. High pressure looks to dominate from late this week through next Tuesday, before another front, not quite as strong, works in Wednesday Thursday next week. We like rains from that front at up to 1” and coverage at 80%.
Moisture continues to fall over Brazil corn areas the rest of this week and next. No changes in through here, with 1-5 inches or more on the way.
Record cold blasts into the US Corn Belt tonight and tomorrow. Milder air tries to push in to start the weekend, but a strong storm complex will bring rain and snow to about 60% of the Corn Belt, mostly from I-80 southeastward. We like liquid equivalents of half to 1.25” with potentially heavy rains in the MO boot heel. Snows could be significant too…but will come down to exact track of the low, and it is too far out to comment on that yet. Arctic blasts #4 and #5 come in next week, and the pattern gets very active (rain and snow) at the turn of the month and through the first week of March.
no change in moisture set up in brazil bean areas fo rthe next two weeks. We see plentiful mosture with totals of 1-5 inches. Most bean aresa will bein the 1-3 inch range. If we said yesteray we would understand talk of harvest/plant delays…there is no reason to day to take that concern off the table. But, we note that we still are not hearing loud complaints yet from these areas either.
Risk of true winterkill in HRW areas is minimal. Temps really are just not that cold. But…the dramatic change in temps over the past few days and weeks will keep some people talking about it. Weekend moisture is not impressive, but we could add another bit of snow on the HRW crop as the next arctic blast comes in Saturday/Sunday. Next week has more days below normal than above, and then moisture looks much better from the 28th -5th over the central plains.
The coldest temperatuers in the SRW areas will be in tonight and tomorrow night. Temps will be easily below 0 over 60% of SRW acres at some point during the next two nights. However, with snow cover and the general condition of the crop to begin with…we still do not look for this to be too problematic. More moisture coming this weekend, and southern SRW acres will be getting the biggest totals. And we follow that up with good moisture potential from 3 systems from the 28th through the 5th.
Remaining dry in FSU and Russian wheat areas. There are no changes in the latest model expectations for the next two weeks from what we posted yesterday. A large part of these grain areas will see little to no precipitation from now into early March. We still see up to an inch or so in extreme southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region…but that is it.
OTHER AREAS OF NOTE:
Temps show little change for morning lows Friday morning…33-34 degrees down to areas just north of Tampa still…but nothing colder for longer farther south. Other than ratcheting up the complaint index from Florida residents, this cold pattern really will not doo a whole lot.
Temps mostly below normal from this weekend through next week, but slightly warmer than normal in large feedlot areas in the central plains for the next 3 days. Very active weather brings more moisture to the region and potentially gusty winds/tough feeding weather at the turn of the month.
Potential still exists for a major winter storm this weekend in hog areas, and then a strong system around the 28th, the 3rd-4th and the 8th.