2017 implications of January report
In Thursday’s final 2016 crop production summary, USDA scaled back corn and soybean production from last month, but for the year yield and total production for both commodities set new records nationally. Indiana soybean production also set a record, as did its 57.5 bushel per acre yield. There were no records for the Hoosier corn harvest, although it was above average. Final yield was 173 bushels per acre.
Mike Silver at Kokomo Grain says all of USDA’s reporting suggests the need for corn acres in 2017 in a current environment favoring soybeans.
“With the demand numbers that are in the balance sheets I think the onus is going to be on the U.S. to produce another good, solid, strong corn crop in this new planting cycle coming up here in just as few months,” he said. “And with the corn/soybean ratio the way it is, and with folks looking at their crop budgets, the economics do still favor soybeans and with an opportunity to sell some pretty good new crop prices.”
That means the corn market will have work to do to attract acres, creating some upside opportunity.
“And with sustained good demand for ethanol production, and we did see last week the largest weekly ethanol production number since we started keeping track of those numbers, so that’s a good indicator. All in all I think we’re set up for some better pricing opportunities moving into the weeks ahead.”
USDA backed down the U.S. corn yield to 174.6 bushels from 175.3 a month ago. It reduced stocks from 2.403 billion bushels to 2.355 billion bushels, and overall production was pegged at 15.148 billion bushels, lowered from the previous estimate of 15.226.
Soybean yield went down to 52.1 bushels per acre, a drop of .4. Stocks were reduced from .48 to .42 billion bushels, and soybean production went from 4.361 to 4.307 billion bushels.
From NASS Great Lakes Region: Indiana producers saw record yields in soybeans and above average production in corn this year, despite unusual weather patterns throughout much of the growing season, according to Greg Matli, State Statistician, USDA, NASS, Great Lakes Region. Periodic dry spells during the year were offset by above average rainfall, which helped to keep Indiana’s crops in great condition through harvest.
Indiana corn production in 2016 totaled 946.3 million bushels, 15 percent above last year’s total of 822 million bushels. Corn acreage harvested for grain totaled 5.47 million, down less than 1 percent from 2015. The average yield of 173 bushels per acre was 23 bushels above last year’s yield of 150. “Western Indiana had excellent corn yields, but they were offset somewhat by below average yields seen in the Northeast,” stated Matli.
Indiana’s soybean production totaled 324.3 million bushels, up 18 percent from last year’s 275 million bushels. Harvested acreage was estimated at 5.64 million, up 3 percent from last year’s 5.50 million acres. The average yield of 57.5 bushels per acre, a record high, was 7.5 bushels above the previous year’s yield of 50.0.
Hay production (all types), at 1.78 million tons in 2016, was up 8 percent from the previous year.
Spearmint production in Indiana was 264,000 pounds, with average yields of 80 pounds per acre. Peppermint production was 575,000 pounds, yields averaged 50 pounds per acre.