Temps did begin to moderate over parts of the state yesterday, and we will see some more moderation today. Our warmest day still is on track to be Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s south, and upper 30s to mid 40s north. We should see a lot of snow disappear by the end of the day Saturday. Sunday’s weather feature is still on track, with anywhere from a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of moisture. We look for mostly liquid precipitation, although if we see anything linger into the night time hours it could easily transition to some wet snow. We do not think it is a big deal, and also will likely not cause any serious problems. Cold air just is not ready to come into the forecast picture yet. Temps do dive a bit Monday, but moderate sharply again Tuesday.
Tuesday night the second piece of this puzzle comes together with a more northern track of a low out of the plains. There is not an incredible amount of moisture associated with this wave either (surprising) but it can bring some light snows with it as it moves through overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture potential is minor…a few hundredths of an inch, but there can be some minor accumulations as the cold air rushes in. Temps behind the frontal boundary revert to normal and below normal levels, staying there through the remainder of the month.
A system around the 24th still looks like it wants to stay just south of the state. However, this is a track that a system took a few weeks back, and at this stage of development, it too was farther south. That system ended up lifting farther north, bringing rain to most of the state. This time, if that were to happen, it would lift into a cold air mass, triggering snow. We do not look for that at this time…but will watch models in the days ahead through the weekend to see if there is any gravitation toward that kind of solution.
We should start to see clipper systems move through every couple of days, starting with the 26th. These will not have much moisture with them but will bring chances of snow off and on through the end of the month at least. The GFS shows a deep cut off low coming out of Baja California (Mexico) toward the 31st. If that solution holds, and it tries to slowly lift into some cold air…that might be a formidable storm to watch for early February for the Hoosier state. Our gut feeling is that it goes away pretty easily…but it is interesting to see nonetheless.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Argentina stays dry weather through the weekend. Our next front hits late Sunday through Tuesday with 1-2” rains and coverage at 80%. Another inch plus is likely in over the later part of the month. The moisture moves north into southern Brazil, where they can see 1-3 inches of rain from now through the end of the month, mostly from 3 frontal boundaries.
Mild air through the entire US Corn Belt will come to an end next week. Moisture will be heavy just south of the Corn Belt, but in general, Corn Belt precipitation should be slightly below normal through the end of the month. Clipper systems the last week of the month will bring snow back, especially from the Upper Midwest down through at leas the US 30 corridors.
Models continue to promise rain. We keep getting reports of rain falling in spots in brazil. However, we really need to start seeing this projected moisture in the intermediate and long term get into a shorter term forecast., Scattered action through the weekend and msot of next week will have potential to put a half to 1 inch in any given spot, but we will see daily coverage at only 40-50%. Cumulatinve rains should be in the half to 1 inch range with 60% coverage through next Thursday. Longer term, fronts look formidable, but we want to see them get into the 7 day forecast window before letting ourselves get more excited. We mentioned this yesterday, and nothing has changed on the most recent model runs to take that conservative approach away. Temps remain normal to slightly above
Warm and dry for HRW areas through midweek next week, cold and dry after that. Precipitation chances for HRW areas are minimal through Feb 1. Most hope for moisture will be on a late week system next week mostly over TX. There will be hopes that the strong moisture from that low will work north. Right now we do not look for that to happen. Temps will be 10-15 degrees above normal through the weekend, but the last week of January we can see temps back near normal. A large cut off low may bring slow moving rains around the 2nd-3rd if we can find a moisture source to tap into.
Mild in SRW areas through next Tuesday. Areas north of the OH River have moisture chances limited to a few hundredths to a tenth or two. But, SRW acreage south of the OH River can pick up half to 1 inch rains from a system for the 24th-25th.
FSU wheat areas are mostly trouble free in the short haul. Not much moisture around, but temps bounce on either side of normal just a bit. We do see a big cool down coming with arctic air late next week in to the final week of January. But…it will not be a brutal arctic outbreak….just a return to below normal temps for a nice 7-10 day period.