Very mild temps over the weekend as we expected reduced the snowpack dramatically over the state. Moisture yesterday was limited mostly to trace amounts over the region with hit and miss coverage. Precipitation type varied, but was more liquid than snow. Going forward, temps today will fall back a bit, before pushing higher one more time tomorrow. Cold air follows in the heels of that push. We do not expect temps to be back below normal until later Wednesday afternoon and then through the rest of the week. Precipitation tomorrow through Wednesday afternoon will be scattered and minor…mostly a few hundredths of an inch or less. We expect most of it to be liquid. Temps will range from the upper 30s to the low 50s north to south tomorrow, and will be in the 30s and 40s Wednesday. Temps in the 20s and 30s will be the norm for the remainder of the week and weekend.
Our next significant event is starting to come into sharper focus for late next weekend into early next week. By Sunday midnight, we should see a low tracking right over the top of the state, brining precipitation potential of up to half an inch. Initially, this will come as rain, but if it starts for the most part during overnight hours, it should change quickly to snow. Models show the freezing line coming through before the bulk of the precipitation, which means some of the heaviest amounts, may come as heavy snow. Stay tuned…it is way to far in advance to make a solid projection on that…but if current model solutions hold…it will be interesting to start the last week of the month, especially over northern Indiana. The map at right is one possible outcome.
Cold air tightens its grip on the region following that system, and we should see temps below normal into early February. Models also are showing quite the storm for the period right at or after the turn of the month. The GFS model, if it were to hold on to its current solution would put 30” of snow with 40 mph winds into southeast NE…and take that storm east northeast. Now…lets be clear…the model run that shows this is a run that I nearly NEVER look at…but it is interesting to see this kind of solution nonetheless. What I take away from it is that we continue to see good potential for a very active pattern through the month of February, with normal to below normal temps, and above normal precipitation. If the low is that strong on that far out model panel…if it can hold together, it has the potential to be formidable…no matter if the 30” out west is a joke or not. Its time to pay attention…things might be on the track to get really, really interesting in the weeks ahead. For now, though, the short term does not look all that exciting…just a return to a mostly boring winter pattern.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Outside of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms today, Argentina’s next shot of moisture comes with a front this Thursday into Friday that brings up to 1 inch or moisture with 70% coverage, and then a 1-3 inch storm system for the 30th and 31st. That second system has great coverage pushing 90%. Temps look to be nearly normal to some above, but should not be quite as warm this week as where we finished last week. Another system may start to work in around the 3rd.
Southern Brazil sees each of those first to fronts work in from the south, brining similar rains, but in between those systems, we see much more scattered shower and thunderstorm action developing, leading to the potential of an additional half to 1 inch or moisture combined with the aforementioned totals. Temps in southern Brazil will be just slightly above normal, but not problematic. Farther north, Corn in Bahia and eastern Goias likely is seeing some dryness stress…although those states are not known for large corn production
The US Corn Belt sees minor precipitation in the short term, but will get very active starting this weekend and then will continue the active pattern into February. In fact, the latest American model run shows a massive 1-2 inch rain and snow event coming at the turn of the month. The model run that shows it is usually one that is very susceptible to errors and we usually throw it out…but it is a very eye catching solution nonetheless. In the mean time, look for below normal precipitin this week, normal to above normal temps through mid week, and then a big cool down to finish the week and for all of next week.
South African corn areas see nothing more than scattered showers through the next couple of weeks, and the heavier rains that were shown last week for tomorrow-Thursday have fizzled out. Interestingly, we do see a significant maritime system tracking across the south Atlantic around the 1st-3rd that may bring some heavy rain to the region for the 5th-6th if its current projected course holds.
Nothing more than scattered rains and thunderstorms over the next 10 days, and the lates model runs are showing a trend toward drier air in at the turn of the month. We still look for half to 1.5” rains combined for Brazil soy areas through the end of the month, but will keep coveage at only 65%. We are getting more reports from eastern and northeast areas of dryness stress and complaints of heat. These are not overly wide spread, but our ground sources are believable for their local area. So far, the hottest temps and driest areas are in lesser production areas. The large production areas are getting timely rains. But, this will be a headline that will likely not go away immediately. Where the rains fall, they will be perfect for continued growth and development. But…there will be stress in the days ahead still in the far east.
HRW areas were quite mild over the weekend. We should stay above normal for most of this week as well, as the colder air pushes in from the north, but slides east. Precipitation will be limited for most of this week. We like decent rains at midweek to come out of TX and move across the Deep South, but they will miss most of the biggest HRW areas, staying in TX and extreme southeast OK. Colder air does arrive closer to the end of the month, and we could see some serious precipitation around the 1st and 2nd too, if current models do hold. Confidence is low in that solution for now, however.
SRW areas stay mild through at least mid week, and then cool down. Precipitation this week will be very minor, limited to just a few areas. Late Sunday into Monday we can see up to half inch moisture equivalents, and then toward the turn of the month we can see up to an inch of rain. But…in general, there are no major problems for this part of the world.
FSU wheat areas see nearly normal temps over the next couple of weeks, and below normal precipi9ation. However, a strong system may move in right ahead of the end of the month that can bring some significant snows, and liquid equivalents of up to half an inch. Otherwise, the weather in this region is pretty benign