A fairly benign and colder day over the Hoosier state today, although temps still are at or above normal in most locations. We really see nothing major coming for the next couple of days. Temps will slowly work back a few degrees higher, but we likely are done with the super mild air. Most of the reason we are not seeing anything significant here is the fact that a major storm will b passing by to the south. 1” plus rains will move across the Deep South, but will not push north of the mason Dixon line at all, leaving us pretty boring.
A nice little low passes over us on Sunday and looks very similar to what we have been talking about the past few days. Moisture amounts in the .1”-.3” range. The coverage looks good, although we can see it more state wide now rather than northern half. We like most of the precipitation coming at liquid, as the freezing lint at 1 pm Sunday still sits up along the MI line…but there will likely be some wet snowflakes in there as well. Any lingering moisture Sunday night (a few hundredths) will come as light snow and leave minor accumulations.
The rest of the week next week should be pretty slow as well. Colder air will be in as high pressure follows the Sunday system. WE look for temps to be at or below normal for the week. Models have some disagreement over the next system, with the European model downplaying the next event somewhat, while the GFS still tries to ramp things up. We will keep a mention of a clipper-like system for late Friday into Saturday (30th-31st). Moisture amounts are not spectacular at this time, but we can see some decent snows, especially over the northern part of the state.
That clipper brings a much colder push of air behind it. Models are showing the trough deep enough that it pushes the major system we have been talking about for the 2nd-3rd down south into the gulf coast area. That might be a bit over done…but we will see what subsequent models say. We also continue to monitor a strong system for the 4th, and now some clipper snows for the 7th.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
We don’t think its any cause for alarm, but the models last night and this morning have gone quite a bit drier for Argentina over the next two weeks. One model suggests there may not be any good frontal driven rains or thunderstorms until we get to the 4th of February. We think this is a bit over done. However, the front for this weekend does look weaker this morning, and we will have to adjust rains to under 1 inch and coverage back to 50% for Argentina corn areas. We will leave the rest of the forecast alone, and still look for some action at midweek next week before the system on the 4th rolls through.
Models have taken a similar approach in southern Brazil corn areas as well, knocking moisture back to just scattered showers in the short term, and then putting all the eggs in the basket for the 4th. We will keep a more active approach to our forecast in the short term, with up to 1 inch of rain through midweek next week, and then 1-3 inches from late next week through early February. This is a little lower on overall moisture total than we had been talking, but is a far cry from the shutting of the spigot that the models have tried to do today. We think they are just going too far to fast.
Short term moisture in the US Corn Belt will be limited, as a strong front the next couple of days stays well to the south, and a low for this weekend has only a few tenths of moisture potential. Most of next week will be dry as well. Much colder air dives in at the turn of the month. There will be a couple of stronger storms that try and move in to the region out of the plains, but tracks are still very uncertain. Currently models are allowing cold air to dictate the tracks, and therefore have pushed tracks south of the Corn Belt. We think that can change in the days ahead. Cold air is brutal early February (as this map shows)
Frontal action in the extended period looks less impressive this morning, but the coverage of scattered actiuon over the next two weeks looks more homogenous. So…we feel comfortable lookint for up to 1.5” of rain combined over the next two weeks over 70% of the brazil Soy belt. This probably is best referred to as timely rain. There should be enough room inbetween action to keep harvest rolling along, but there should be enough scattered mosture (even in the east and northeast) to keep stories of dryness in check. It really looks like a decent pattern to finish off beans and start off the 2nd crop corn.
Just like we have no real worries for argentina corn…bean areas look pertty good too, after a slow start to the season. However, the latest models may raise a bit of concern over dryness, as today’s look is much drier than we have seen the past few days.
Good rains in TX and OK this morning (ok, some of the moisture in OK is snow). This comes out of a strong low that is getting ready to exit TX this morning. This is the storm the Weather Channel has decided to name. In any case, this system moves basically straight east…across the Deep South. Southern HRW areas can see up to 1 inch of moisture. Areas from the KS/OK line northward see nothing today. Very little moisture expected next week either. However, toward the end of the week, we see another scenario much like we see playing out today…a strong low in TX moving east. WE think that subsequent model runs will try and take this low more northeast (the way they were a few days ago) which can bring moisture back to the northern half of HRW country…but for now, we should not count on it. Temps get much colder later next week, and stay cold for February.
SRW areas see moisture for the next 10 days limited to a few tenths north of the OH River, but half to 2 inch totals are possible south of the OH River. Temps slowly get back to normal between now and midweek next week and then go below normal to finish the month. Brutal cold comes in over the region for early February, and we look for that cold to stay.
FSU wheat areas look colder for the first part and last part of the forecast period. The last 5 days of the period we see well below normal temps. In the middle, we see some milder air lifting up from the south. This will be right about the same time a couple of weaker fronts toy with the area, trying to come in out of Eastern Europe. We can see precipitation totals up to .75” liquid equivalent out of those two systems, coverage at about 60%. We like most of the moisture over the Central and southern Regions, and to a lesser extent in the Volga region. This should be a mix of rain and snow, ending as more snow.