A warm front pushing in from the west will allow us to squeeze out a few more days of temps that stay close to normal. However, our days of super warm air are behind us, and much colder air is coming behind. Temperatures tomorrow will work back into the 30s and low 40s over most of the state, and similar numbers will be in for Thursday. By Friday we work back to below normal levels, and next week will be well below normal.
Precipitation is not overly impressive yet for the state in the days ahead. We continue to watch for a front to sneak through Thursday, ushering in the colder air. Precipitation will be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, with some coming as wet snow. Coverage will be roughly 80% of the state.
The big wild card continues to be the big storm complex developing in TX late in the week and moving east through the weekend. We have maintained since last week that we had a concern about this system moving farther north-northeast than models had been saying. Well, the recent European model has started gravitating toward that kind of solution. Moisture is not overly overwhelming yet, but for Sunday we can see some precipitation working in, and a large part of it looks to be snow (check out positioning of the freezing line). As this might be some warm frontal overrunning, we will have to keep concern about freezing rain instead of snow in the back of our minds, especially for areas in the central and southern parts of the state. We will be looking for subsequent models to take this moisture and expand the scope and coverage north and east.
An arctic high follows that front in, and will settle across Appalachia by Tuesday morning. The freezing line will be all the way into central AL and MS, meaning we will be well below normal here. Models are showing another storm coming from the gulf coast area up the east coast. While this storm right now is projected to miss us, if it holds together it will be another big headline maker for east coast population centers. Our next big system may wait until the 11th into the 12th. Farther west, we see a pooling of moisture and strong fronts just off the west coast, which may fuel the active run through the month of February.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
No significant changes in South America weather at this time. Our next front hits tomorrow in Argentina and moves across most corn producing areas through early Saturday. We like rain totals up to 1 inch with coverage at 80%. Scattered showers linger from Monday through Wednesday of next week, with half inch totals and 50% coverage. We finish the week on a dry note, and then bring another half to 1 inch rain maker in for the 8th-10th. .
Mostly dry the rest of this work week in southern Brazil. Our first front works into Southeast Brazil from Saturday through Monday. We are looking for rain totals of half to 1.5” and coverage at 80%. A quick hit second front moves in for midweek next week, and models continue to show it coming more from Paraguay across Matto Grosso do Sul, and then on up through Parana. That front should produce half to 2” rains and coverage at 70%.
Better moisture in the US Corn Belt on the latest model runs as the European model tries to bring this weekends moisture up out of TX and into the western/southwestern Corn Belt areas. Right now totals are still under half an inch for the most part, but the rains are a good 300-400 miles farther north than previous model runs. Cold air will be the other big story, as it finally takes over as we go through the weekend. Temps will be well below normal over the entire Corn Belt. Parts of the upper Midwest may struggle to hit 0 for highs through the first part of next week. The extended period shows cold air holding over the eastern half of the country, with the Corn Belt below normal through mid month. Precipitation may be limited to clipper systems initially with limited liquid equivalent, but heavier rains likely work out of the plains after the 10th.
Models are handling the mositure over Brazil soy areas in the next week to 9 days in similar fashion to last week and to the solution yesterday. That is to say that we will see mostly scattered action. Over the next week or so, we expect an inch tops, and likely less than that combined, but temperatures will be mostly normal. The exteneded period continues to show multiple fronts with moderate to heavy rains, but we refuse to get too excited until we see those heavier rains work into the 7 day forecast window…and we are several days out from that even potentially happening yet. But…at this point in time, we contiue to look at weather in South America as mostly non-threatening. Headlines will continue to pop up from eastern and northeastern areas, but nothing more than we have heard to this point.
Records fell across the central plains yesterday for high temps, as 70s were recorded in multiple areas. Today will be even warmer. Then we jerk back closer to normal. However, the coming weeks may descend into an east vs. west story…with warmer than normal temps in the foot hills and into extreme western parts of HRW areas, while colder air blasts in over the eastern plains. In the middle, expect a lot of back and forth, not necessarily what wheat likes best. There should be decent moisture. Rains in TX will be an inch or more this weekend, and we expect rains up to half an inch to drift up through KS to near I-70. Nrth of I-70 action will be minor. Another strong system exits east TX mid to late next week. And then colder air will hold toward mid month over the entire HRW area.
SRW areas shift to a much colder pattern late this week and weekend, freezing temps will work all the way into the Deep South. Rains up to 1 inch will be realized over the next week to 10 days from the Mason Dixon line southward, while north of that line we see quarter to half inch rains. Two large storms will hit southern areas. Northern locations will shift over to all snow as clippers become the norm for next week and the week following.
Colder air settles in over FSU wheat for the rest of the week. Strong high pressure continues to park over Tibet next week which will produce strong southern flow over the region during the period. That should prop temps up just a bit. However temps crash back down after the 10th. The switch from warmer air to colder air should bring 2 fronts in off of Eastern Europe toward the end of the period, and we look for those to trigger .25” to .75” liquid equivalent, mostly snow.